A very interesting read indeed and an indepth comprehensive analysis. At the outset it was heartening to note that India is outgrowing caste, religion and regional political leanings. Identifying females as a voting block is indeed a masterstroke; one should not forget the triple talaq legislation that was not only a much needed social reform for the Muslim women but also targeted them as a potential vote bank and split the opposition votes. The distribution of free rations due to the pandemic was perhaps a major factor in garnering votes from the SP and especially BSP bastions. The practice of doing away with middlemen in this distribution further strengthened the faith of the poor and they made no mistake in voting for the party that looked after their basic needs. Further, the Muslim voters were divided by Owaisi. Goa was a bit of a surprise but with no change in the top leadership of the only other national party, the BJP should be back with a comfortable majority in 2024, unless of course the unforseen happens. Excellent writeup Anil. Thank you 😊
Why do you use the term terminal decline for the INC ? Looks they are done and dusted ? Hasn't AAP delivered on their promises in Delhi ? Both in their first and current term ? That is the impression I get when I speak with common people in Delhi ! They should be able to do so in Punjab too ?
Thank you for your thoughts. In politics there is no certitude. Recall that BJP was reduced to two seats in 1984. On AAP a lot depends on who you speak to. In politics that it is his. And they have been voted to power by a massive margin. So the majority buys into what they can do. All I am saying is that it is also true that they have benefitted from the massive anti-incumbency against established political parties. Not to take anything away from them.
A very correct analysis of the election results! The female voters have changed the equations. The efficient delivery of welfare including ration schemes has nudged the women to shift towards BJP.Also a very large number of houses built under the Pradhan Mantri Awaas yojna have been alloted in the name of women. The improved law and order situation has also contributed to this shift.
The statue of Chairman Mao in a Delhi restaurant is truly surprising. We teach about his Great leap Forward ( 1958) and the Great Chinese Famine in Class XII. Who can forget his contribution in establishing people's Republic of China in 1949?
A refreshing political analysis with an economic tinge. Good one. Kudos Anil!!
Dear Vivek,
Thank you so much.
Best
Anil
Insightful read. Thank you Anil
Thank you Krishna.
Best
Anil
A very interesting read indeed and an indepth comprehensive analysis. At the outset it was heartening to note that India is outgrowing caste, religion and regional political leanings. Identifying females as a voting block is indeed a masterstroke; one should not forget the triple talaq legislation that was not only a much needed social reform for the Muslim women but also targeted them as a potential vote bank and split the opposition votes. The distribution of free rations due to the pandemic was perhaps a major factor in garnering votes from the SP and especially BSP bastions. The practice of doing away with middlemen in this distribution further strengthened the faith of the poor and they made no mistake in voting for the party that looked after their basic needs. Further, the Muslim voters were divided by Owaisi. Goa was a bit of a surprise but with no change in the top leadership of the only other national party, the BJP should be back with a comfortable majority in 2024, unless of course the unforseen happens. Excellent writeup Anil. Thank you 😊
Thank you Gautam.
Best
Anil
Why do you use the term terminal decline for the INC ? Looks they are done and dusted ? Hasn't AAP delivered on their promises in Delhi ? Both in their first and current term ? That is the impression I get when I speak with common people in Delhi ! They should be able to do so in Punjab too ?
Dear Rajiv,
Thank you for your thoughts. In politics there is no certitude. Recall that BJP was reduced to two seats in 1984. On AAP a lot depends on who you speak to. In politics that it is his. And they have been voted to power by a massive margin. So the majority buys into what they can do. All I am saying is that it is also true that they have benefitted from the massive anti-incumbency against established political parties. Not to take anything away from them.
Best
Anil
Dear Anil,
A very correct analysis of the election results! The female voters have changed the equations. The efficient delivery of welfare including ration schemes has nudged the women to shift towards BJP.Also a very large number of houses built under the Pradhan Mantri Awaas yojna have been alloted in the name of women. The improved law and order situation has also contributed to this shift.
The statue of Chairman Mao in a Delhi restaurant is truly surprising. We teach about his Great leap Forward ( 1958) and the Great Chinese Famine in Class XII. Who can forget his contribution in establishing people's Republic of China in 1949?
Dear Vandana,
Thank you for your kind words and for fleshing out the linkage between welfare programmes and electoral behaviour.
Best
Anil