POLL VERDICT DECODED
The recent state elections weaponised votes of women and social welfare beneficiaries, setting the stage for an electoral reset. EPISODE #64
Dear Reader,
A very Happy Monday to you.
Last week the results for the latest round of elections returned a 4-1 win for the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). The lone reverse was scored by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a pariah among the opposition and national parties, when it recorded an audacious landslide win in Punjab.
There is a subtext to the victories scored by BJP and AAP. Both galvanised the electorate with the promise of delivering livelihood security: affordable housing, drinking water, electricity and access to good infrastructure; all of which are also means of empowerment.
This no doubt contributed to their electoral success, especially for the BJP, which was battling anti-incumbency in the four states. While in the case of AAP it is only a promise, for BJP it is all about their track record in execution. This week I explore the rise of the stakeholder economy and how it is forcing a reset in electoral behaviour.
The cover picture this week is from a restaurant I happened to visit in Khan Market, New Delhi. Was impressed by the striking wall installation of Mao Zedong, the founding leader of China but rarely mentioned in his home country these days.
Last week’s post struck a chord with most readers. Even better the impressive play it got on social media enrolled a clutch of new readers. A big shoutout to Gautam, Kishan, Rajit, iSpirit, Aashish, Premasundaran, Mr Kelkar, Rajeev, Vandana and Vivek for your informed responses, kind appreciation and amplification for last week’s column.
Gratitude also to all those who responded on Twitter and Linkedin. Reader participation and amplification is key to growing this newsletter community. And, many thanks to readers who hit the like button😊.
THE STAKEHOLDER ECONOMY
Last week’s poll results confirmed the obvious. First, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) reconfirmed its status as the principal pole of Indian politics. Here it is not about what they have achieved. Instead it is about how they have done so. Second, the Congress, the over 100-year old grand old party is in terminal decline. And, finally the political vacuum created by the meltdown of the Congress is being filled by wannabes and regional upstarts.
Tag all three together and what you have is a reset in the country’s polity. This is not something that you will glean from the political punditry—some of which is well sell past the date and agenda driven—being paraded on television and showcased in mainstream media. To assume that astute readers/viewers will not see through this charade is adding insult to injury. I will merely set out my case before you and leave it to your superior judgement to accept or reject my argument.
The New Pole
What should worry the opposition is that the BJP is steadily rewriting the ground rules of electioneering and thereby figuring out new means to stay a step ahead. If in 2014 they made their case by feeding off the two-term anti-incumbency to oust the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) from power, in 2019 it reworked its electoral pitch to focus on livelihood security—addressing the legacy deficit of toilets, housing, drinking water, health, electricity, cooking gas, banking and education accumulated over the first seven decades since Independence.
Over time by emphasising execution in the delivery of these basic needs the BJP has created a stakeholder economy. Schemes like Direct Benefits Transfer were also delivering tangible benefits and cutting out the share of the middleman.
In the fight for Uttar Pradesh the BJP made this their central pitch. This is over and above the usual appeal to the vote banks built around caste and religion. Citing their record they appealed to the beneficiaries (or labarthis) to vote them back for a second term. A key cohort among these beneficiaries are women and the BJP made them the focus. The idea was to derive an extra edge, just like it did by stitching together a coalition of smaller caste vote banks to blunt the Samajwadi Party’s advantage in combining the powerful Yadav-Muslim block of votes.
In fact, exit polls confirm that this strategy worked. The vote bank of women turned out to be the key difference between the BJP and its principal rivals, Congress in Uttarakhand and Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh. In UP the BJP and the Bahujan Samaj Party were the only two parties where women supporters outnumbered their male counterparts.
Sharing his perspective on the exit polls conducted in Uttarakhand, Pradeep Gupta, chairman and managing director of Axis My India, told India Today TV,
“The difference among the male voters between Congress and BJP (in Utttarakhand) is only 1 %, but the difference between Congress and BJP among women voters is 8%. This is a too big margin. The reason is very simple: the social delivery of social welfare schemes of central government.”
Actually the arguments for Uttarakhand hold true for UP too. In fact, you may recall that the Ujjwala scheme to make cooking gas universal was a huge hit with female voters in the 2017 election when the BJP scored a landslide win.
In fact, Gupta makes a strong case about the emergence of women as a vote bank. Please check out the tweet below.
I have written a detailed piece on the stakeholder economy for the Open Magazine this week. I would suggest you read it to get a more comprehensive take on how this played out in the UP election. Please click this link to read the piece.
The emergence of the vote bank of women, particularly in the case of UP is potentially disruptive. As this election showed the traditional political fault lines of caste and religion are weakening thanks to the X-factor.
Simultaneously the BJP has harvested enormous social capital by addressing livelihood security and empowering people. In other words the opposition desperately needs a new playbook to counter the BJP.
Terminal Decline
It is not just that the BJP is on the ascendancy. It is also not about the reset in polity being forced by the BJP. It is as much about the terminal decline of the Congress. The current leadership of the party has run out of ideas.
The facts are scary. The Congress has not won an election on its own since 2019; the only victories are as a junior partner. In the just concluded election in UP, 97% of the party’s candidates lost their deposit—in other words 387 out of the 399 candidates could not even secure a sixth of the polled votes.
You may recall that a year ago I had dared to ask an audacious question: India After Congress.
If you would like to read the piece please click the link below.
Matters have only gone from bad to worse in the last 12 months. At this stage only a miracle—the BJP imploding spectacularly—can revive their political fortunes. Till then leaders even with a decade of political life left in them would be hard pressed to stay on in the party. I wouldn’t be surprised if more leaders desert the ship and dissidence spikes.
The Vacuum
A consequence of this progressive meltdown of the Congress since 2014 has left a political vacuum. The BJP has vacated the space in the opposition to claim the principal pole in Indian politics. The Congress, which was expected to occupy the space of the principal opposition has failed miserably.
In the absence of a national party, now several regional players see an opportunity for themselves. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is among the first movers. After dethroning the Congress in Delhi it has done an encore in Punjab—and in both instances in spectacular style.
But can it go the full distance? Let us not forget the Congress has a century of history in public service which enabled it to craft its ideology. AAP has been around for a decade and was an off-shoot of the anti-corruption crusade. Not to take away any credit from their fantastic victory, but in both instances the AAP has been a case of being at the right place at the right time.
At the same time their success muddies the water for the prospects of stringing together a grand coalition to take on the BJP. Yes, several regional players like the Trinamool Congress, AAP and Telangana Rashtra Samithi are able to hold more than their own against the BJP juggernaut.
But the question is that there is no single anchor to stitch a coalition together. Each of the regional leaders can stake equal claim to be the leader. In other words a consensus means someone has to blink. It is not that this can’t happen. Just that at the moment its prospects are dim.
Further, the BJP is looking to expand its electoral footprint. Which means that this puts it in collision with strong regional players. One fallout will be a fractious relationship between the union government and state governments led by regional satraps with national ambitions. One casualty could be cooperative federalism.
Either way it is apparent that the reordering of the Indian polity has begun with the BJP as its principal pole. It is still too early to say what form and shape it will eventually assume. Yet safe to conclude that business-as-usual is dead.
Recommended Viewing
It is some coincidence that just when I was mulling over this week’s piece I came across a video by Ray Dalio, the celebrated global hedge fund manager. In the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict it is a fantastic explainer on the ongoing reset in the polity of the world.
It is a bit long but do watch.
Till we meet again next week. Stay safe.
A refreshing political analysis with an economic tinge. Good one. Kudos Anil!!
Insightful read. Thank you Anil