Informative article and very accurate analysis of the present world scenerio! China is facing deflation and rising youth unemployment.The main reasons could be the harsh curbs under the zero- COVID policy, it's economic model based on debt fuelled investment and the focus on export oriented growth.
The Israel - Gaza war has made the global economy vulnerable. Major global economic issues are inflation due to rising energy price s and supply chain distributions. As you rightly say , G-20 can serve a crucial platform for global economic discussions addressing major issues including trade.G-20 accounts for 75% of international trade and around 80% of Global World Product ( GWP). India s presidency focused on protecting the vulnerable , promoting equitable growth and enhancing macroeconomic financial stability. India strives for a collaborative and inclusive future on the global stage.
In the case of China I believe covid-19 fallout was only a catalyst. The Chinese model is built on exports--which as we know is suffering on account of the decoupling initiated by the West led by the United States.
And absolutely the Israel-Hamas face off has placed the region on the edge and the world economy on notice. Do catch my conversation with Harsh Pant, which aired last night on StrateNews Global. He sheds some fantastic insights on geoeconomic fragmentation.
I would rather focus on what is it there for India in this De-risk China scenario! We have an excellent opportunity now to catch up and be part of the global manufacturing chain. This will also bring us closer to USA in geostrategic sense to deter China from troubling us. USA also needs Quad to deter Chinese misadventures in Indo Pacific. Let us not worry about IMF, global growth but focus on our growth and the policies that Modi Govt have to make best of the opportunities now. Of course, Modi is doing all that he can but from the states, we need concerted actions for rapid economic development.
Agree with you that China plus-one offers India immense opportunity to get into the global circuit. This will however require some heavy lifting with respect to business reforms at the level of states. Luckily some states are beginning to see the virtue of what the centre has been arguing and seeking to implement--hence the intent by states to become $1 trillion economies. But, they need to walk the talk.
Finally, while domestic focus will help at this stage, India cannot be insulated from global upheavals. What is at play right now can unleash tectonic shifts, which can go any which way. The good news is that India today has acquired a boldness and unprecedented self-confidence. This is a precondition to operate on the global high table.
Appreciate your flow of thoughts over these two articles ! Serious economic impacts of geo political developments have been tellingly brought out . It’s only a journalist with deep understanding of economics and politics who can do that.
World economic crisis arising out of unpredictable exogenous factors cannot probably be tackled by the present set of international institutions designed to deal with endogenous factors. Anil you have correctly called for political leadership at the global stage which can possibly take lead to stabilise the global economy ! One important necessity is to re structure these instructions !
Thank you so much for your thoughts and kind words. Much appreciated.
Glad that you concur with the restructuring of existing institutions. It is no longer an option, but a necessity. Problem is that it has become like a Gymkhana Club membership--once your are in, you don't want others to join.
Institutions have to be democratised. Glad that BRIC recognized this and inducted the African Union, UAE and Saudi Arabia. Hopefully this is the beginning of a new era.
Dear Anil,
Informative article and very accurate analysis of the present world scenerio! China is facing deflation and rising youth unemployment.The main reasons could be the harsh curbs under the zero- COVID policy, it's economic model based on debt fuelled investment and the focus on export oriented growth.
The Israel - Gaza war has made the global economy vulnerable. Major global economic issues are inflation due to rising energy price s and supply chain distributions. As you rightly say , G-20 can serve a crucial platform for global economic discussions addressing major issues including trade.G-20 accounts for 75% of international trade and around 80% of Global World Product ( GWP). India s presidency focused on protecting the vulnerable , promoting equitable growth and enhancing macroeconomic financial stability. India strives for a collaborative and inclusive future on the global stage.
Dear Vandana,
Thank you so much for your thoughts.
In the case of China I believe covid-19 fallout was only a catalyst. The Chinese model is built on exports--which as we know is suffering on account of the decoupling initiated by the West led by the United States.
And absolutely the Israel-Hamas face off has placed the region on the edge and the world economy on notice. Do catch my conversation with Harsh Pant, which aired last night on StrateNews Global. He sheds some fantastic insights on geoeconomic fragmentation.
Best
Anil
I would rather focus on what is it there for India in this De-risk China scenario! We have an excellent opportunity now to catch up and be part of the global manufacturing chain. This will also bring us closer to USA in geostrategic sense to deter China from troubling us. USA also needs Quad to deter Chinese misadventures in Indo Pacific. Let us not worry about IMF, global growth but focus on our growth and the policies that Modi Govt have to make best of the opportunities now. Of course, Modi is doing all that he can but from the states, we need concerted actions for rapid economic development.
Dear Surendra,
Agree with you that China plus-one offers India immense opportunity to get into the global circuit. This will however require some heavy lifting with respect to business reforms at the level of states. Luckily some states are beginning to see the virtue of what the centre has been arguing and seeking to implement--hence the intent by states to become $1 trillion economies. But, they need to walk the talk.
Finally, while domestic focus will help at this stage, India cannot be insulated from global upheavals. What is at play right now can unleash tectonic shifts, which can go any which way. The good news is that India today has acquired a boldness and unprecedented self-confidence. This is a precondition to operate on the global high table.
Fingers crossed.
Best
Anil
Hi Anil
Appreciate your flow of thoughts over these two articles ! Serious economic impacts of geo political developments have been tellingly brought out . It’s only a journalist with deep understanding of economics and politics who can do that.
World economic crisis arising out of unpredictable exogenous factors cannot probably be tackled by the present set of international institutions designed to deal with endogenous factors. Anil you have correctly called for political leadership at the global stage which can possibly take lead to stabilise the global economy ! One important necessity is to re structure these instructions !
Well recommended my friend !
Regards
Dear Balesh,
Thank you so much for your thoughts and kind words. Much appreciated.
Glad that you concur with the restructuring of existing institutions. It is no longer an option, but a necessity. Problem is that it has become like a Gymkhana Club membership--once your are in, you don't want others to join.
Institutions have to be democratised. Glad that BRIC recognized this and inducted the African Union, UAE and Saudi Arabia. Hopefully this is the beginning of a new era.
Fingers crossed.
Best
Anil