NDA's SEVEN YEAR ITCH

Last week the BJP-led NDA clocked a record seven years in office. Is their stint a case of a cup that is half-empty or one that is half-full? EPISODE #26

Dear Reader,

A very happy Monday to you.

Among other things, last week was also the seventh anniversary of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance. Their audacious win in 2014 under the leadership of Narendra Modi seems so distant now, especially in the backdrop of the exceptional challenge shaped by the once in a century covid-19 pandemic.

This week I take a crack at reviewing their record in office. It is not an easy task given the binary noise around us. Yet, I have given it a try. Now it is for you to draw your own conclusions.

This week in the viewing/reading recommendation I share a video from Rachel Botsman, a self-described trust scholar, author and lecturer at Oxford University. Please do take the time out to watch her profound explanation of how trust is shifting in the world. If you get that far then you have a surprise: A bonus viewing recommendation!.

Once you read this post, please do share your thoughts. Ideally in the comments section. If not, please email or ping me on twitter at @capitalcalculus.

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NDA @7

Last week the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) logged seven straight years in office. As it has happened with most anniversaries and birthdays over the last one year—disrupted by the covid-19 pandemic—this too was low key. It almost passed without us knowing about it.

Interestingly this anniversary comes at a time when the NDA is facing a very tough inquisition for the devastating covid-19 fallout. Even its staunchest supporters are on the defensive in responding to the critics who believe they have an opportunity to turn the political tide against the incumbent. Frankly, with three years to go before the next general election, anything is possible. However, the manner in which events—like the pandemic—have upended the best laid plans, it will be a mugs game to hazard any guesses.

For now it makes better sense to take stock of the last seven years.

Indeed, this is a significant milestone, a record in itself; it is the longest tenure of any non-Congress political formation. Together with the tenure of NDA-1 under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee the occupancy of a non-Congress regime at the helm adds up to an impressive 13 years.

Even more remarkable is the fact that the BJP which leads the incumbent coalition has replaced the Congress as the principal pole of Indian politics. In turn this is something that has triggered unprecedented churn and transformation of the Indian polity.

Every state level electoral contest only reaffirms two things. One, the churn is far from over. Two, it is increasingly becoming a case of BJP vs the rest. So increasingly the political dharma taking root is the enemy’s-enemy-is-my-friend.

Having set the context I would like to share the heads up on the structure of the review.  To keep it simple I have created two buckets: What hasn’t worked for the NDA and what has worked for them.

Also I would like to throw in the caveat that this review is by no means exhaustive. Instead, it is just an indicative list to stoke a conversation.

The Narrative

If there is one stand-out thing that has not worked for the NDA in the last seven years, it is its inability to manage the narrative. It seems to be hamstrung for want of either a good communication network or articulate government officials (like the ones manning the White House). Worse, I am not even sure they have a well laid out plan. It is more like a belief that ‘our actions will speak for themselves’. In the day of hyper social media, troll farms for fake news, echo chambers and a binary discourse this can be politically fatal.

Compounding this is the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a very uneasy relationship with the media. The wires got crossed a long time ago and since then sections of the media have often assumed an adversarial stance with Modi—who in turn is not the type of person who forgets or forgives easily. The obvious fall out has been that the trust quotient between Modi-led government and the media is almost negligible. And the mixing of views and news has only compounded this challenge.

As a result even when the NDA does have a good story to sell, there are few takers. And when it comes to fending off allegations—which fly fast and furious—or incessant (and sometimes outright cynical) doomscrolling, this handicap is amplified. Almost on every occasion the response is defensive, even in instances where the allegations are an act of deliberate disinformation. In short the NDA runs the risk of losing control of the narrative.

It is not just me, several other commentators have flagged NDA’s lack of an effective communication plan. Recently TCA Srinivasa Raghavan, a former colleague when I worked at Business Standard, argued this in his signature style.

“But the government needs to first think about a problem that has dogged it since it came to power in 2014. This is that even its domestic communication is quite useless.

Thus even when it does something highly desirable — and whether you like it or not there is a truckload of such things — it just isn’t able to communicate it properly.

This is in sharp contrast to the UPA, which, even when it did very little, or did something wrong, it managed to convince everyone that it had achieved a lot of good.”

But then it is not only about optics.

I recall writing a column at the end of the first 100 days of NDA in 2014 that the union cabinet had a serious challenge in its bench strength. At that time it was understandable given that the BJP-led NDA had spent most of its years in the opposition. However seven years on this can no longer be an excuse. The passing of leaders like Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj has only added to the vacuum.

These gaps are beginning to haunt the NDA as it shifts gears and forces a rapid makeover of India. The growing complexity and nuances of the changes underway will test even the best. And unexpectedly the regime has had to also deal with a once in a century pandemic, which has only magnified this inadequacy.

Given that there was no playbook the mitigation process was always going to be one of trial and error—which meant the communication with the country had to be flawless and every member of the union cabinet, elected MPs, and state governments led by the NDA had to pull their weight.

Remember any captain is as good as his team. And this is especially true when the chips are down.

In a brilliant piece published in Mint last week, Makarand Paranjape argues that the pandemic has posed a tough choice to Modi: Continue to operate as a solitary colossus or as a team leader.

“Leadership is at the heart of any damage control or course correction for the ruling dispensation. (Narendra) Modi has so far donned the mantle of the solitary, heroic leader, centralizing power and authority, taking risks, leading by example, almost taking on the electoral mandate of single-handedly transforming India.”

Empowerment vs Entitlement

This brings us to what has worked for the NDA.

A stand-out feature of the ideology driving this regime, in sharp contrast to the Congress-led UPA, is the emphasis on empowerment. From the beginning they have preferred teaching people how to fish rather than hand them fish.

At the same time they have, recognizing India’s unique tryst with poverty, not abandoned entitlements, but increasingly restricted it to the needy—and in this the accepted principle is to extend such benefits to 800 million people who they have identified as vulnerable. Exactly why they have withdrawn subsidies on cooking gas for most users, but not hesitated to extend free food grains to this cohort throughout the last 15 months—this has no doubt mitigated the pandemic’s fallout on lives and livelihood.

A significant part of this empowerment strategy has been the single minded pursuit of enabling universal access to basic amenities like banking, electricity, drinking water and housing—which till a few years back were a luxury to possess. In addition, it has launched Ayushman Bharat, a scheme which brings medical insurance to 500 million living at the bottom of the pyramid. (I have said this in previous columns that most Indians are just one disease away from poverty and an insurance cover is a good social safety net.)

The graphic above is self explanatory: in the last seven years the NDA (as per government data) has been super successful in increasing access to basic services.

Not only has this made growth inclusive it is also levelling the playing field. It is as though all of a sudden Bharat has traded up: if you used a lamp now you own an electricity powered bulb; if you were using a money lender to send money you are now using a banking network; if you were drawing water from a well, then you are now collecting it from a tap; if you were openly defecating, now you have a toilet at home and so on.

Yes, the poor have a lot of ground to cover before they catch-up with the rest, but the fact is that very act of providing this access in itself is empowering. I still distinctly remember how the productivity of our home and my mother’s routine transformed dramatically when the kerosene-stove was replaced with cooking gas.

Similarly another takeaway of the last seven years has been the determined drive against corruption. Yes, most of the legal cases are still tied up in judicial knots, but what has helped is the baby steps in implementing the rule of the law—of which the Goods and Services Tax and targeting subsidies by linking to an individual’s Aadhaar are outstanding examples—to eradicate retail corruption. I have said this before and no harm in repeating it: If India desires its legitimate space on the global high table then it has to embrace the rule of law.

And of course there is no denying the fact that this is the most business-friendly regime in modern India. It is another matter that old school India Inc has failed to exploit this opening; though the technology backbone is creating an entirely new generation of entrepreneurs. Not willing to risk the moral outrage (remember the barb by Rahul Gandhi: Suit-boot ki Sarkar) the NDA has cleverly couched this pivot with the slogan: Pro-poor and Pro-business.

Clearly, NDA under PM Modi believes its actions will speak for themselves. He is not wrong. So far the NDA’s social capital has only grown. However, the covid-19 pandemic has thrown a spanner in the works. For the first time there is an element of self-doubt.

The big question is whether the incumbent regime is resilient enough to rebound? Or will this be their proverbial seven-year itch?

Recommended Viewing

As promised here is the video of Rachel Botsman on the idea of trust.

Once you are done with this, please do spend some time and watch this brilliant short film—it is part of a series dubbed Pooja Didi. The film is located in Amritsar, bets on humanity and inspires in our fight against the pandemic.

Once you start you won’t be able to stop. Intentionally I saved the best for the last. Enjoy.

Till we meet again next week. Stay safe.