Is Vote Bank Politics Back?
Amid dodgy economic conditions, caste and religion prevailed over the new electoral currency, targeted social welfare spending. EPISODE #181
Dear Reader,
A very happy Monday to you.
Last week the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, formally took charge of the union government for a record matching third term—the last PM to do so was Jawahar Lal Nehru.
A significant aspect of this union cabinet is its caste composition: Little over 80% of the 71 strong cabinet belong to the electorally powerful backward caste segments of Dalits, Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Classes (OBCs).
Clearly, the NDA is sending a message to the significant chunk of non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits who had polled for the opposition in Uttar Pradesh—contributing to the stumble of the BJP electoral juggernaut. The opposition, to its credit, successfully revived the fault lines of caste and religion during the campaign.
This begs the question: Is vote bank politics back?
After all, the growth in targeted social welfare spending and the spawning of crores of labarthis (beneficiaries) had begun to paper over these social cleavages in the last decade. More importantly it was a different kind of glue—as opposed to religion and caste—to bind the electorate. So this week I explore this vexing question.
The cover picture is a slice of street life at the iconic Times Square in New York, and is taken by Sonia Singhal. The city is in the news for playing host to India’s T20 cricket world cup clash with Pakistan. Thank you Sonia.
Happy reading.
Spotlight on Vote Banks
Last week, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) formally took over the helm of the union government for a record matching third time. The swearing in ceremony was conducted in the lawns of the Rashtrapati Bhawan in New Delhi.
The composition of the union cabinet under Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent out several signals:
Firstly, it was a case of continuity with change. Given that the BJP failed to muster a majority of its own, care was taken to accommodate the allies. Berths were allocated in proportion to their numerical strength in the 18th Lok Sabha.
Second, the caste composition of the cabinet was overwhelmingly in favour of the electorally powerful backward caste segments of Dalits, Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Classes (OBCs). The mantra of ‘Backward is the new Brahmin’, just got a fresh lease of life.
This ideological tilt, visible three years ago when NDA 2.0 undertook a cabinet rejig and grew the share of this cohort to 50 in the 87-member cabinet, got more skewed this time. Their number has grown to an estimated 59 in the 71-member cabinet—every fourth member belongs to the backward caste segment.
Clearly, the NDA avoided any experimentation, preferring instead to hang onto a team which delivered previously.
More importantly, the social composition of the cabinet tacitly acknowledges the setback in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP suffered a dramatic erosion in its tally—it got less seats than its principal rival in the state, the Samajwadi Party. It is evident, the BJP has drawn quick lessons from the verdict and is setting its sights on the election to the state assembly of UP in 2027.
At the same time, this political course correction also begs the question: Is vote bank politics back?
To be sure vote bank politics has always existed in India. It is just that the emergence of targeted social welfare spending created millions of beneficiaries or labarthis, blunting, in some instances, the appeal of vote banks developed around the traditional fault lines of caste and religion.
Further, I am not generalising this argument about the revival of vote bank politics for the entire country. Instead, I am localising it in the context of Uttar Pradesh—the state which cost the BJP an absolute majority.
Finally, this assessment is based on exit polls data, which at its best offers insights about voting trends. So the emphasis is on trends and not the absolute numbers.
Please keep these caveats in mind when you read on.
The Exit Polls Cue
Almost all the exit polls point to a shift in the voting behaviour of key caste groupings across the country.
In Uttar Pradesh, since 2014, the BJP has conjured a caste grouping which tilted the balance in its favour. Not just in two general elections, but in two consecutive assembly elections as well—BJP won a majority in both. This social balancing helped the party offset the numerically influential Muslim votes.
In this general election, this balance was upset. Not only did the BJP+ (allies) witness an erosion in their vote share, the opposition gained electorally. At the same time there was a massive consolidation of Muslim votes for the Cong+ grouping.
Check out the graphic above.
The BJP+ witnessed a substantive erosion in their vote share accruing from the Scheduled Castes (SCs). It declined from 41% in the 2019 general election to 35% in 2024.
On the other hand, over the same period, the vote share of Cong+ in this grouping went up steeply from 28% to 46%. Together with the consolidation of Muslim votes, whose vote share for Cong+ shot up from 52% to 80% over the same period, tilted the electoral scales.
It is evident the stakeholder economy developed by the NDA in the last decade ran into an energised opposition that succeeded in exploiting the social cleavages around caste and religion.
Responding to a query on this trend, Sajjan Kumar, a political analyst, summed it up best:
“The emergence of the category of Labharthi (beneficiaries of welfare schemes) diluted the old mode of community-based vote bank. This took a hit in this election. Nevertheless, the dominant agrarian castes in many states have been opposing this shift as they lost their position as the anchor of politics in their respective states.”
The Labarthis
After taking charge in 2014, the BJP-led NDA focused on fixing the legacy deficits with respect to toilets, banking, cooking gas, drinking water and so on. Implicitly, it was acknowledging the cause and genesis of vote bank politics.
A recently released book—Accelerating India’s Development: A State-Led Roadmap for Effective Governance—succinctly explains the emergence of vote bank politics in India. The book is authored by Karthik Muralidharan, a professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego—and, also a guest in an upcoming episode on StratNews Global.
Karthik argues that governments, strapped for resources, since Independence were unable to deliver on the democratic imperative to provide essential services like toilets, cooking gas, drinking water and so on. They had to choose among the poor in the country.
This in turn provided political incentives to incumbent governments to favour their constituents among the electorate. This created a dedicated set of voters, ergo vote banks in the country.
Karthik added (bold text is my doing):
“These beneficiaries then vote for politicians they perceive as having contributed to these changes.
In political science terminology, this results in politics based on clientelism—defined as targeting public benefits towards preferred voter groups in return for their votes—rather than broad-based service delivery.”
Karthik then goes on to cite instances wherein politicians are able to game the First Past the Post (FPTP) principle that guides Indian democracy (bold text is my doing):
“The central role of FPTP elections in making vote-bank politics a viable strategy is seen by noting that in the 1995 state elections, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s party won with just 34.3% of votes cast. Since the turnout was 59%, he won with the support of just 20.2% of registered voters.
Thus, under FPTP, it is possible for politicians to win with intense support from smaller groups, who are more likely to vote, than with diffused support among more people, which is often not strong enough to get them out to vote.”
Clearly then, the NDA was invested in broad basing access to essentials. In turn it would also create the basis for fresh demand in the economy—providing the needed ballast for economic growth. At the same time it was diluting the power of vote bank politics. It was essentially a case of good economics and good politics.
The NDA was able to achieve this by triangulating an individual’s (Jandhan) bank account, Aadhaar and Mobile—it acquired the acronym of JAM. Once the beneficiary was identified the government employed the India Stack built on Aadhaar to roll out public good at scale.
Not only did this ensure targeted delivery of social welfare, it also entailed massive savings to the central exchequer (a cumulative sum of Rs2.75 lakh crore).
Coincidentally, bulk of the benefits of delivering on basics accrued to women in households, who previously bore the brunt of walking miles to collect firewood and drinking water, besides having no say in household finances for the want of a bank account. In turn, this cohort emerged as an important electoral constituency for the BJP.
In short, the BJP electorally weaponised social welfare spending and made major inroads among women voters—by according them with dignity and unprecedented empowerment.
Elections to state assemblies held two years ago, including in Uttar Pradesh—when the BJP pulled off a re-election—confirmed this trend. Two years ago, almost one in two women backed the BJP.
Check out the graphic below based on exit poll numbers shared by AxisMyIndia.
I don’t have the break-up of this data specifically for women voter behaviour in Uttar Pradesh in the just concluded general election.
But, it would be a safe surmise that this cohort continued to back the BJP in the state—and probably prevented an electoral rout for the party. The common refrain from all over Uttar Pradesh, particularly among women, was “Ration aur Shashan” (Free food grains, governance and law and order).
In the final analysis it is clear, especially from BJP’s quick response that the traditional fault lines of caste and religion have got a fresh lease of life in Indian politics.
Indeed, if the BJP has to restore the primacy of social welfare as the new electoral currency then it has to up its game in delivering on jobs—the means to realise aspirations stoked by a decade of being taught how to fish by enabling access to basics.
Remember in politics, it is rarely the case of what your are doing. Instead, it is about what the public perceives you are doing.
At the moment, especially based on the data from a raft of exit polls and national surveys, the perception is that the NDA is falling short on delivering quality jobs—quantity is not the problem—in a country blessed with an overwhelmingly young electorate and raging aspirations.
Recommended Viewing/Reading
Sharing the latest post of Capital Calculus on StratNews Global.
The best kept secret about India is the ongoing makeover of its Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities like Jaipur, Ludhiana, Bhopal, Lucknow and so on.
Few know that they are emerging as the hub for startups in India. These towns also signalled their political influence in the just concluded general election by partially withdrawing support to the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
To understand the what and why of this compelling makeover of Tier-2 and Tier-3 India I spoke to Charu Malhotra, Co-Founder and Managing Director, Primus Partners.
Drawing on the results of a recent survey conducted by Primus Partners, Charu unpacked the contours of this transformation and the attendant implications.
Sharing the link below. Do watch.
Till we meet again next week, stay safe.
Thank You!
Finally, a big shoutout to Shipra for your informed responses, kind appreciation and amplification of last week’s column. Once again, grateful for the conversation initiated by all readers. Gratitude also to all those who responded on Twitter (X) and Linkedin.
Unfortunately, Twitter has disabled amplification of Substack links—perils of social media monopolies operating in a walled garden framework. I would be grateful therefore if you could spread the word. Nothing to beat the word of mouth.
Reader participation and amplification is key to growing this newsletter community. And, many thanks to readers who hit the like button😊.
Your article Anil was an interesting read Anil. Thank you. Just a few points I thought would be useful to analyze and summarize the election results - 1. Religious propagation will not be the main reason for supporting by the majority community. 2. The I.N.D.I.A. alliance worked in UP and Maharashtra. 3. Giving tickets to defectors from other parties, accepting a tainted leader like Ajit Pawar and making him Dy CM in Maharashtra, demoralized the loyalists within BJP. 4. Making unnecessary derogatory remarks about Muslims, in order to please certain sections in the majority community, was a mistake. In 2019, the triple talaq issue had brought sections of the Muslim community, especially women, closer to BJP. That prudence was missing this time. 5. However, the results in Odisha, Karnataka, MP, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh were very encouraging for the BJP and the results in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala were below expectations. The State governments in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha were further areas of consolidation. The huge infrastructure development expenditure in UP, has not delivered the anticipated election result, as the investment has not translated into jobs; but perhaps in the future this may bear fruit. Overall the election results of 2024 are still in the process of complete analysis, as it is a complex verdict. Look forward to your write up next Monday 😊
This election showed us that nothing has really changed on the ground for Indian politics. In fact, national election should have focus on the agenda for the nation and which party has better agenda than the others rather than issues like person, caste, religion etc. But we have not developed this political voting behaviour at all. We mix local, district, state level issues with national elections and vote!! This is not a good augury for India to be developed country by 2047!!! Some must take up this task of educating our voters. Perhaps MP should be nominated after a party wibs the election from the constituency. Further, to increase voting, either double the EVMs in the major cities n towns or better introduce online voting through bank aadhar linkage. We must draw our lazy middle classes to vote. Modi has a lot on his plate in next 10 years. He must deliver as we have no one else as of now to do all this.