INDIA TO COP ONE FOR THE WORLD
India's ambitious pledge to cap carbon emissions at the Glasgow summit signals its pivot to becoming part of the solution in multilateral negotiations. EPISODE #47
Dear Reader,
A very Happy Monday to you.
Last week the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held the summit meeting of its supreme decision making body—Conference of the Parties (COP)—in Glasgow. It was a moment when the rich countries and also the world’s biggest polluters (read China and the United States) declined to commit concrete steps to combat climate change, which is already past the tipping point. And yet India took the plunge.
Addressing the COP Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a bold commitment on behalf of India, which left most observers stunned. And this when India, which accounts for nearly a fifth of the world’s population is responsible for only 5% of global emissions. I believe this is the second biggest strategic pivot being undertaken by India since Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee abandoned the legacy of anti-Americanism at the turn of the Millennium. Overnight India signalled to the world that it is now willing to be part of the solution and not the problem when dealing with global challenges like climate change.
Exactly why I opted for the headline and punned on COP. By taking one for the team India has shown that nation’s have to rise above self-interest to fight new global challenges. This was explained best in an opinion piece published in the Hindustan Times by Sunita Narain, my favourite go-to person on environment issues and someone who has shaped a generation of journalists writing on environment.
“India’s targets for the climate crisis, announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Glasgow are bold and ambitious — and challenging. But given the enormity of the crisis, India is not just walking the talk, but running it.”
This week I explore India’s promise to COP and the underlying challenge of abiding by the pledge. The political economy of implementing this ambitious agenda is hugely significant. It will not just shape the cities of India, the pledge will radically influence the pattern and composition of production and consumption. It is a reset of proportions that we can barely comprehend at present.
The cover pix is sourced from Unsplash and taken by Li-An Lim. It perfectly sums up the inclement challenge facing us.
A big shoutout to Ruby, Ugo, Gautam, Premasundaran, Vandana and Aashish for your informed responses, appreciation and amplification for last week’s column. Gratitude also to all those who responded on Twitter and Linkedin. Reader participation and amplification is key to growing this newsletter community. And, many thanks to readers who hit the like button 😊
RUNNING THE TALK
Last week world leaders, with the exception of China, converged at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to take part in the ‘make or break’ summit meeting of the Convention’s supreme decision making body—Conference of the Parties (COP). Despite the enormity of the climate challenge overwhelming planet earth it seemed as business-as-usual with no one willing to walk the talk on reducing carbon emissions, leave alone capping it.
That is till India got its opportunity to speak. I am sharing below key takeaways from the pledge made on behalf of India by Prime Minister Narendra Modi:
India commits to go Net Zero in carbon emissions by 2070—just two decades after the deadline set by the United States, the world’s richest economy and also the second biggest polluter. Essentially India is committing to balance its carbon emissions either by eliminating the source or its removal from the atmosphere.
Inspired by its initial success in pursing the target of setting up 450GW installed capacity of non-fossil fuel, India has upped this commitment to 500GW. Further, it pledged that by 2030 half of its energy requirements will be generated from renewables—it has already achieved 40% of this target.
India will reduce one billion tonne of carbon emissions from the total projected emissions by 2030. Further it said it will also reduce carbon intensity in the economy by 45%.
India’s climate change commitment took everyone by surprise. Not just because it was a wake-up call to the habitually somnolent global polluters. Instead it was about the boldness of intent. As Sunita Narain (quoted in my covering letter) pointed out, India was not just committing to walk the talk. It was proposing to ‘run the talk’.
And this from a country which is yet to overcome its legacy challenges of underdevelopment, accounts for nearly a fifth of the world population and contributes only 5% of global carbon emissions. Giving up on ‘dirty growth’ and embracing the green option comes at a very big cost. Indeed this is a huge sacrifice.
Implicitly India is signalling to the world that the new set of global challenges, like the covid-19 pandemic, growing income inequality and of course climate change, cannot be tackled by national policies alone. It requires a collective and coordinated effort in which nation’s rise above their self-interest.
The Pivot
Not since Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee have we seen such a bold shift in the country’s strategic stance at the global high table. You may recall that almost immediately after he came to power in 1998 Vajpayee initiated a quiet exit of India from the so-called non-alignment club. This also meant that India was no longer boxed in by its anti-Americanism legacy.
PM Vajpayee did one better. Making a bold break from the past, he opted to forge an alliance with the United States—a country which India viewed inimically given its history in extending overt and covert support to Pakistan even while they merrily fostered terror networks to target India.
In fact, immediately after the audacious terror strikes on 9/11, India offered the US use of its territory as a military staging point for counter-terror operations in Afghanistan. Over the next two decades this relationship has grown incrementally and accelerated more recently given the geo-strategic reset after China showed its hand—including a series of unprovoked acts of aggression in its neighbourhood against several countries including India.
Now PM Modi is attempting a similar strategic shift by signalling that India is part of the solution and not the problem in multilateral negotiations.
At one level it has proposed a solution which could potentially create the space for a dialogue that can end the logjam on tackling climate change. Negotiations have degenerated into a game of chicken.
Indeed India’s pledge is a tacit recognition about the nature of the inclement challenge of climate change and the consequent need to re-strategise. In an intricately inter-connected world every setback is amplified—like we saw in the 2008 global economic meltdown and more recently the covid-19 pandemic—with catastrophic consequences. The resulting global challenge can no longer be addressed through policy fixes by individual countries. It requires collective action.
Secondly, in the process India is seeking to signal a shift in its negotiating strategy. For long India’s opposition (and rightly so) to block efforts of developed countries to hustle through global rules favouring them has created an unsavoury perception of it being a deal-breaker.
By its sheer size and underlying economic potential India could not be ignored. Yet its unwillingness to accept even a tactical compromise came at a cost: By remaining outside the tent it has been unable to block the change in rules leave alone meaningfully influence the debate. Now India believes it has more to gain by being part of the club which decides the rules. And for this it is willing to lose an odd battle to win the larger war.
More importantly by signalling that it was willing to compromise by undertaking such a big pledge it has also forced the developed countries into a corner. It will make it difficult for them to shy away from footing part of the bill to finance this transition—compensate and fund poorer countries to adopt green technologies—to a cleaner climate regime.
No coincidence then that PM Modi made clear that developed countries will have to match India’s offer with a corresponding increase in their commitment to climate finance and technology transfer.
“Today, when India has resolved to move forward with a new commitment and a new energy, the transfer of climate finance and low cost climate technologies becomes more important.
India expects developed countries to provide climate finance of $1 trillion at the earliest.
Today it is necessary that as we track the progress made in climate mitigation, we should also track climate finance. The proper justice would be that the countries which do not live up to their promises made on climate finance, must be pressured too.”
In short there are no free lunches in the real world. India is paying its dues. Now it is over to the rest of the world.
Recommended Reading
You may recall that a few weeks ago, parts of Uttarakhand were devastated by a bout of extreme rainfall—the highest ever recorded by the Dehradun Meteorological Circle in the Kumaon hills.
I have previously mentioned how instances of extreme weather—an outcome of climate change—are on the rise in India. And hence the instance in Uttarakhand is no surprise.
I came across a detailed post-mortem of the extreme weather moment by the South Asia Network of Dams, Rivers and People.
Sharing a slide from their report which captures the extreme intensity of the downpour. It is a welcome miracle that the damage was not greater.
Please click here if you wish to read the entire report.
If indeed there is a lesson from this scary episode it is that climate change is for real and the mitigation steps cannot be put off. In fact, over the weekend Chennai was under water after it received its heaviest downpour in five years. Clearly the climate change clock is ticking.
Till we meet again next week. Stay safe
Dear Anil,
Excellent article and indepth analysis of a topic which is of universal concern.I have always believed in Sunita Narain though there are many people who are against her views.India is emerging as a major country expressing concern and taking steps to control carbon emissions. Let's hope and pray for a cleaner World !!
Rather than being coaxed or coerced into following a rules based emission program that is bound to be follow, in view of the destructive weather being experienced all over the world; India under PM Modi, has siezed the initiative at the COP26 meeting and declared bold targets with an unexpected foresight; for adhering to the rules will not only be a welcome to the world community but also it will benefit our own country by being less affected by climate change and be on the path to a dynamic sustainable growth. The commitments must have been carefully worked out, keeping in view the progress already made and our natural advantage for solar energy projects. The most topical and crucial issue of the time Anil and you have made a terrific presentation. Thank you as once again I am recharged with fresh knowledge.