Thank you Vandana. Glad this episode resonated with you. You are right the Global Hunger Index is flawed. The thing is that no matter which metric you use the direction of reduction in poverty holds up.
This is however low hanging fruit. Should have been resolved long ago. Another story of not just missed opportunity but also public policy failure in delivering basic material goods to Indian citizens.
In our Class XII economics syllabus, we have a chapter on Poverty , it's causes , consequences and types .Also the concept of Absolute and Relative poverty.
Poverty Eradication is The Sustainable development goal 1 to be achieved by 2030.
As you rightly said India has the largest number of poor people in the world. Our rank in Hunger Index is 101/ 116 countries.It has worsened in 2021( though it is debatable).
India has not declared its poverty figures since 2011, it was measured on basis of Consumption expenditure surveys by NSSO.
The survey by NSSO in 2017-18 was to be released, but it was stopped by the government as it reflected an increase in poverty.
There are so many different methods of estimating poverty .The new global poverty line adopted by World Bank since September 2022 is less than $ 2.15 a day.according to this estimate around 10% of Indians were poor in 2019.
IMF defines poverty line as ,$ 1.9 a day .
UNDP s estimate are most authentic as they include education, health and standard of living.Whatever be the methodology, we all agree that poverty in India has declined over the last decade, but still a lot needs to be done.
Well done Anil for highlighting this. Truly great movement of people out of poverty. This kind of mass movement creates its own momentum for growth. Higher income leads to higher demand, initially for staples, but over time, for more value added products and services. I'm not a huge supply sider but, in this specific instance, it is critical that the ecosystem is created to unleash the supply side on all fronts- infrastructure, financial markets and an encouragement towards entrepreneurship.
As an additional, but related phenomenon- it's worth pointing out that from the time I was born 57 years ago to now, life expectancy in India has risen from 45 years to 70 years. That's a stunning number, given the base of population.
If handled well with good growth oriented, long term policies, the future could be very bright and this economy, which for many years, maybe even decades remained stuck on the runway with an "about to take off" tag, can actually soar.
Thank you Murali. Especially for flagging the economic logic of pulling people out of poverty. As economic agents they have the potential to power the economic transformation that has eluded India for most of the last 75 years. And, absolutely, the rise in life expectancy is most impressive.
Hopefully, finally things are coming together for India.
Totally agree with you Anil that it is a huge task. The first two steps would be to build many educational institutions, starting from primary school to research centers and hospitals all over the country, with research centers and specialized care centers in the urban areas. Availability of water supply is essential for economic growth and improving quality of life and living standards, so rain water harvesting projects is the need of the hour. President Abdul Kalam had suggested linking of rivers in his wisdom. Agro based industries in the rural areas, will help the local population to get employment and they will not have to migrate to the urban areas for a living and put pressure on the crumbling infrastructure and have a higher standard of living. Aadhar card and Jandhan bank accounts are steps in the right direction and the will and direction of the PM was revealed when Swachh Bharat Mission was declared in 2014. Very well written article Anil and keep enlightening us. Thank you.
A very Happy Diwali to you too Kartik. I am remiss in missing out on greeting you this morning in the newsletter.
Indeed institutions have a major role. Interestingly even the community, through panchayat, was roped in for the cause.
I interviewed Amarjeet Sinha for this week's Capital Calculus on StratNews Global. He retired as the Rural Development secretary and previously co-designed Sarvashiksha Abhiyan and the rural health mission. So perfect guest for this episode.
He shares terrific insights, especially how this feat was pulled off.
On states there is sketchy data. Will share. Big fall has done in the poverty hubs like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar--both of which have been the focus of sanitation, drinking water, cooking gas, housing and electricity.
Cool, would love to see/hear that interview if there’s some link available. Looking forward to your continued exploration of this theme - poverty is certainly the biggest issue of our generation and forms the bedrock for anything else we do
Just stumbled across an oped co-authored by Bibek Debroy, chairman of the PM's Economic Advisory Council. It was published this June. They have done some independent calculations and come up with conclusions similar to the UNDP--about the decline in poverty.
The article also carries a break-up for states that they computed. Sharing the link below:
India’s reduction in MPI value continued to be pro- poor in absolute terms, as it was from 2005/2006 to 2015/2016. Rural areas were the poorest and saw the fastest reduction in MPI value. The incidence of pov- erty fell from 36.6 percent in 2015/2016 to 21.2 per- cent in 2019/2021 in rural areas and from 9.0 percent to 5.5 percent in urban areas. Children, the poorest age group, saw the fastest reduction in MPI value. The incidence of poverty fell from 34.7 percent to 21.8 percent among children and from 24.0 percent to 13.9 percent among adults. Similarly, the poorest caste and religious groups saw the fastest absolute reduction in the recent period.50 This general pattern continues across the states and union territories (fig- ure 8). Bihar, the poorest state in 2015/2016, saw the fastest reduction in MPI value in absolute terms. The incidence of poverty there fell from 77.4 percent in 2005/2006 to 52.4 percent in 2015/2016 to 34.7 per- cent in 2019/2021.
Thank you Vandana. Glad this episode resonated with you. You are right the Global Hunger Index is flawed. The thing is that no matter which metric you use the direction of reduction in poverty holds up.
This is however low hanging fruit. Should have been resolved long ago. Another story of not just missed opportunity but also public policy failure in delivering basic material goods to Indian citizens.
Better late than never.
Best
Anil
In our Class XII economics syllabus, we have a chapter on Poverty , it's causes , consequences and types .Also the concept of Absolute and Relative poverty.
Dear Anil,
Very nice article!
Poverty Eradication is The Sustainable development goal 1 to be achieved by 2030.
As you rightly said India has the largest number of poor people in the world. Our rank in Hunger Index is 101/ 116 countries.It has worsened in 2021( though it is debatable).
India has not declared its poverty figures since 2011, it was measured on basis of Consumption expenditure surveys by NSSO.
The survey by NSSO in 2017-18 was to be released, but it was stopped by the government as it reflected an increase in poverty.
There are so many different methods of estimating poverty .The new global poverty line adopted by World Bank since September 2022 is less than $ 2.15 a day.according to this estimate around 10% of Indians were poor in 2019.
IMF defines poverty line as ,$ 1.9 a day .
UNDP s estimate are most authentic as they include education, health and standard of living.Whatever be the methodology, we all agree that poverty in India has declined over the last decade, but still a lot needs to be done.
Well done Anil for highlighting this. Truly great movement of people out of poverty. This kind of mass movement creates its own momentum for growth. Higher income leads to higher demand, initially for staples, but over time, for more value added products and services. I'm not a huge supply sider but, in this specific instance, it is critical that the ecosystem is created to unleash the supply side on all fronts- infrastructure, financial markets and an encouragement towards entrepreneurship.
As an additional, but related phenomenon- it's worth pointing out that from the time I was born 57 years ago to now, life expectancy in India has risen from 45 years to 70 years. That's a stunning number, given the base of population.
If handled well with good growth oriented, long term policies, the future could be very bright and this economy, which for many years, maybe even decades remained stuck on the runway with an "about to take off" tag, can actually soar.
Thank you Murali. Especially for flagging the economic logic of pulling people out of poverty. As economic agents they have the potential to power the economic transformation that has eluded India for most of the last 75 years. And, absolutely, the rise in life expectancy is most impressive.
Hopefully, finally things are coming together for India.
Best
Anil
Totally agree with you Anil that it is a huge task. The first two steps would be to build many educational institutions, starting from primary school to research centers and hospitals all over the country, with research centers and specialized care centers in the urban areas. Availability of water supply is essential for economic growth and improving quality of life and living standards, so rain water harvesting projects is the need of the hour. President Abdul Kalam had suggested linking of rivers in his wisdom. Agro based industries in the rural areas, will help the local population to get employment and they will not have to migrate to the urban areas for a living and put pressure on the crumbling infrastructure and have a higher standard of living. Aadhar card and Jandhan bank accounts are steps in the right direction and the will and direction of the PM was revealed when Swachh Bharat Mission was declared in 2014. Very well written article Anil and keep enlightening us. Thank you.
Thank you Gautam. Apologies for the delayed response.
Agree with you. In terms of medical capability, India has launched a major drive to set up medical colleges across the country. Huge legacy deficits.
The experience with poverty alleviation shows a scientific approach can generate results.
Fingers crossed.
Best
Anil
Happy Diwali and this is very heartening to read! I’m curious about two things:
1. What is the role of institutions in this story?
2. What’s the progress across states?
Would love to know more.
A very Happy Diwali to you too Kartik. I am remiss in missing out on greeting you this morning in the newsletter.
Indeed institutions have a major role. Interestingly even the community, through panchayat, was roped in for the cause.
I interviewed Amarjeet Sinha for this week's Capital Calculus on StratNews Global. He retired as the Rural Development secretary and previously co-designed Sarvashiksha Abhiyan and the rural health mission. So perfect guest for this episode.
He shares terrific insights, especially how this feat was pulled off.
On states there is sketchy data. Will share. Big fall has done in the poverty hubs like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar--both of which have been the focus of sanitation, drinking water, cooking gas, housing and electricity.
Hope that helped.
Best
Anil
Cool, would love to see/hear that interview if there’s some link available. Looking forward to your continued exploration of this theme - poverty is certainly the biggest issue of our generation and forms the bedrock for anything else we do
Hi Kartik,
The interview will air this Thursday at 7 pm on StratNews Global. In case you miss it I will share it with the newsletter next week.
Best
Anil
Just stumbled across an oped co-authored by Bibek Debroy, chairman of the PM's Economic Advisory Council. It was published this June. They have done some independent calculations and come up with conclusions similar to the UNDP--about the decline in poverty.
The article also carries a break-up for states that they computed. Sharing the link below:
https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/poverty-in-india-data-for-2020-21-shows-a-decline-over-the-decade-11656002586296.html
Absolutely Kartik. Exactly why this achievement is huge.
This is from the UNDP report, Kartik.
India’s reduction in MPI value continued to be pro- poor in absolute terms, as it was from 2005/2006 to 2015/2016. Rural areas were the poorest and saw the fastest reduction in MPI value. The incidence of pov- erty fell from 36.6 percent in 2015/2016 to 21.2 per- cent in 2019/2021 in rural areas and from 9.0 percent to 5.5 percent in urban areas. Children, the poorest age group, saw the fastest reduction in MPI value. The incidence of poverty fell from 34.7 percent to 21.8 percent among children and from 24.0 percent to 13.9 percent among adults. Similarly, the poorest caste and religious groups saw the fastest absolute reduction in the recent period.50 This general pattern continues across the states and union territories (fig- ure 8). Bihar, the poorest state in 2015/2016, saw the fastest reduction in MPI value in absolute terms. The incidence of poverty there fell from 77.4 percent in 2005/2006 to 52.4 percent in 2015/2016 to 34.7 per- cent in 2019/2021.