The Politics of Counting Caste
The proverbial Pandora's box on caste has been opened, setting in motion another potentially dramatic makeover of India's polity. EPISODE #225
Dear Reader,
A very happy Monday to you.
For the first time since Independence, India is going to conduct a caste Census. The last one was conducted by the British in 1931.
Guess, there must have been a reason why a generation of politicians, cutting across party lines, evaded including caste in the Census, conducted every 10 years. Despite the fact that caste has always had a profound socio-economic impact through its power to influence access to education, resources and opportunities. In turn this determines social mobility.
In an amazing and rare convergence of thinking among the two main national parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress, who are otherwise bitterly opposed, the country has decided to venture into political unexplored territory—which has the potential to throw up a slew of unexpected social surprises.
And, the fact that the outcome of the caste Census will be made public along with delimitation of electoral constituencies just ahead of the 2029 general election, makes this development that much more interesting. This week I will unpack the implications of the proposed caste Census.
The cover picture of sunrise in Varanasi, and taken by Sujatha Shenoy. The silhouette of the boatman as he pulls at his rows is very striking. Thank you Sujatha.
Happy reading.
Counting Caste
According to the survey conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) in 2004-05, the proportion of OBCs (Other Backward Classes) in the country was estimated at 40.94%, making them the single largest caste cohort. The same NSSO survey pegged the share of SCs (Scheduled Castes) at 19.59% and of STs (Scheduled Tribes) at 8.63%.
Here is a twist though. An earlier NSSO survey conducted in 1999-2000, estimated the proportion of OBCs to be 35%. This is baffling. More likely improbable: In six years the proportion of OBCs went up by as much as six percentage points!
As with all surveys, estimating the aggregates, even though they may be dodgy, is the easy part. Figuring out the composition of each cohort is not only complex, but beyond the bandwidth of any survey.
Not that this is easy to do in a Census.
Firstly, no caste cohort is homogenous. They are highly variegated. Secondly, the sub-castes within each caste cohort differ across the country. Thirdly, since definitions vary across states, a sub-caste in a caste cohort in a state may be classified in another caste cohort in a different state.
To be sure, it is not that the Census has not been counting caste. It is just that the only the cohorts of SCs and STs are counted. To date, only one Census has counted all castes. This dates back to 1931 and was conducted by the British. In other words, there is no Census count for OBCs—the single largest cohort—since India got Independence in 1947.
Effectively, for the last seven decades and more, India has been working with what we can call guesstimates on the population of OBCs. I am not sure if any official will call it out so bluntly. Unfortunately, this is the worst kept secret about counting caste in India.
The political mood in the country is now inclined to bell this cat. This is apparent from the raft of caste surveys (A Census can be conducted only by the union government) carried out in Karnataka, Bihar, and Telangana. Hence, the decision to go for a caste Census is in keeping with this sentiment.
Why Caste?
While politicians have so far successfully evaded the task of counting OBCs and determining their composition, it has not prevented them from playing this caste card to garner votes in general and state assembly elections. Every state in India is witness to this phenomenon, though popularly everyone likes to hold up Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as the poster children of caste.
According to academics, the idea of caste emerged in the concept of varna, which classified people on the basis of their occupations. Somewhere along the way it assumed the form and divisive shape that we see today. Something, politicians have weaponised to devastating effect in political battles.
The introduction of reservation for OBCs in 1992, in the backdrop of the decision to accept the recommendations of the Mandal Commission by Prime Minister V P Singh, who took charge of the Janata Dal government in 1989, was a turning point in Indian politics.
The Mandal Commission was the second Socially and Educationally Backward Classes Commission. It was established in India in 1979 with a mandate to “identify the socially or educationally backward classes” of India. Though, the Commission submitted its report in 1980, the recommendations were put on the proverbial back burner till 1990.
The primary motivation to bring out the Mandal Commission was politics. It was a bid to thwart the rapid rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was leading the call for building of the Ram temple at Ayodhya, UP. This strategy of positioning caste against religion acquired a moniker: Mandal vs Kamandal.
Regardless, it led to unprecedented political empowerment of the numerically strong OBCs. In turn, it created powerful regional leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav in UP and Lalu Yadav in Bihar. This also accelerated the marginalisation of the Congress in these states. But, for the bump in the 2024 general election, the Congress party has been reduced to a mere political footnote in these two states.
In another twist, the Union government, in 2018, enacted the 102nd constitutional amendment, which granted constitutional status to the National Commission for Backward Classes. This move took away the power of states to play favourites and put out their list of OBCs, something the Union government reversed through a subsequent constitutional amendment.
In short, reservation or affirmative action is seen as a means of redistribution of political and economic power. And, of course a means to correct historical wrongs. This is a politically powerfully slogan for any party to own.
BJP vs Congress
This is exactly why the BJP and Congress are duking it out in public. Both want to claim credit for the inclusion of the full caste count in the Census. Interestingly, while the ends are the same, both parties have differing motivations.
The Congress, especially under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, who is also the leader of the Opposition (LoP) in Parliament, sees this, like V P Singh, a means to trip up the BJP and at the same time recreate the rainbow coalition that enabled the party to be in power for a record six decades. The LoP however is walking the razor’s edge, especially with his demand to expand the cap of 50% reservation and to include the private sector in its purview.
On its part, the BJP, which has at times contradicted itself, has backed the move to include the caste count in the Census. I can only guess their motivations. It is a strategic move, which not only preempts the political play of the Opposition, but also allows them, as the party in power, to determine the guardrails—and probably the next source of conflict politics—to undertake the count. Also, unlike the Congress, the BJP opposes raising the cap on reservations.
Further, once the caste configuration and composition is determined, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has probably figured that they have the administrative means to prevent capture of the reservation goodies by powerful caste cohorts, some of whom lead powerful regional political forces.
These lessons have been derived from the rollout of social welfare programmes by the NDA. By identifying the beneficiary using their Jandhan bank account, Aadhaar and Mobile (JAM), the NDA has been able to ensure benefits reach the intended target. In the process, it has cumulatively saved the national exchequer a staggering Rs3 lakh crore—which is twice the amount of what the union government spent in its first covid-19 relief package and more than thrice of what it pays out annually under its rural jobs guarantee scheme.
The political empowerment that this has garnered has no doubt contributed to the NDA’s harvest of social capital—the glue that has enabled a record matching third consecutive term in office. Presumably, the NDA believes that it can politically weaponise the targeting of sub-categories of castes, once they have been identified in the Census, with social welfare.
Elusive WYSIWIG
The thing about life in general and politics in particular is that it is not, to borrow a tech term, WYSIWIG (What You See Is What You Get). Most of the present narrative assumes status quo will prevail. As the Bhagwad Gita very eloquently argued, the only thing in this world that is constant is change. Hence, status quo is a risky assumption to run with.
The speed with which India is transforming, a trend that is accelerating with the ongoing makeover of the world, is staggering. For instance in the last decade and more, India has provided bank accounts to 40 crore plus people, nearly eradicated abject poverty or shrunk it to less than 5% (it was around 50% at the turn of the Millennium), and provided near saturation access to electricity, toilets, cooking gas and drinking water.
All of this has created an unprecedented groundswell of aspirations in the country. As a result a lot of political punditry has been buried at this altar of aspirations. The findings of the caste Census may well upset the most well crafted political applecart.
For instance, we have seen how the caste survey conducted by the Congress party in Karnataka, when they were in power two terms ago, uncovered politically unpalatable findings on the caste composition in the state. As a result, the findings are yet to be made public, though they are doing the rounds sotto vocce.
Politicians, it is apparent, have had the gumption to open the proverbial Pandora’s box. What lies within is anybody’s guess. Unlike politicians, we have the luxury to sit back and watch.
Recommended Viewing
Sharing the latest episode of Capital Calculus. (Please note that Capital Calculus has moved to a new home (stratnewsglobal.tech) within StratNews Global. This relocation will take a bit of getting used to—bear with me.
Recently, IIT Madras shared that its incubation cell had birthed a record 104 deeptech startups, including Ather Energy, which closed its IPO last week. Cumulatively, the IIT Madras Incubation Cell has been home to about 460 deeptech startups, staking its claim as the country’s deeptech hub.
To explore the how, what and why of this development, I spoke to Tamaswati Ghosh, the CEO of the IIT Madras Incubation Cell. In a lengthy conversation, Tamaswati explained that the key to their audacious success is the happy convergence of industry, academics and entrepreneurship. The secret sauce, she added, was attaching mentors, drawn from industry, to each venture from the very beginning.
“We are talking about very interesting deep tech quality companies. They possess the potential for commercial success, which is a very, very positive thing. It also kind of validates the organisation structures that have been created over over the last couple of years within the campus to help students to better formulate their ideas; think about entrepreneurship really seriously.
By the way, IIT Madras has one of the largest number of professors who are entrepreneurs also in the country.”
Do watch. Sharing the link below.
Till we meet again next week, stay safe.
Thank You!
Finally, a big shoutout to Premasundaran, Gautam and everyone else for their informed response, kind appreciation and amplification of last week’s column. Once again, grateful for the conversation initiated by all readers. Gratitude to all those who responded on Twitter (X) and Linkedin.
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