The Message From Middle India
Electoral math, exit poll insights suggest that the BJP electoral juggernaut stumbled due to a voter rethink in some parts of Middle India. EPISODE #180
Dear Reader,
A very happy Monday to you.
Last week the Election Commission of India declared the results of the 18th general election. As expected the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) registered a hattrick. There was a twist to the story though.
This time though the BJP failed to win a majority on its own. Falling short of the magic mark of 272 seats by 32 seats. While this does not deny either the BJP or Prime Minister Narendra Modi a record third term in office, it could however potentially cramp the governance style of the last 10 years.
What happened? How did the BJP, despite suffering only a marginal fall in its vote share from 2019, still end up losing 60 seats from its previous record of 303? I am sure you have your own compelling theories. I will share my thoughts on this vexing question this week.
The cover picture sourced from the government is of the NDA 3.0 union cabinet.
Happy reading.
A Poll Surprise?
Like most of us, I too was surprised with the outcome of the just concluded general election. Not just because the exit polls had called it overwhelmingly in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance.
Instead, it was because most of us missed the growth of the opposition’s appeal in regional pockets—especially in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.
Whether it was based on genuine outreach exploiting a three-term anti-incumbency, especially against sitting Members of Parliament (MPs), or by allegedly spreading fake narratives about reservations being walked back and cash guarantees, the fact is that the opposition’s campaign met with reasonable success in pockets. In politics it is rarely about what you do, but what you are perceived to be doing—consequently, electoral narratives are critical in shaping a campaign.
However, this spirited rearguard action by the opposition alliance, the INDI, did rock the BJP boat by denying them a majority of their own, something they enjoyed in their first two terms, but failed to unseat the NDA. Presumably, this will rework the terms of engagement within the coalition—to what extent is anybody’s guess right now; simply because it is uncharted territory for the NDA under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi—this is the first time he has retained power without an absolute majority.
While several theories abound as to why and how the BJP stumbled, we must keep in mind that most of these arguments (including mine) are with the benefit of hindsight. As a result, at best they are guesses.
In a country as huge and diverse as India—642 million people voted in this general election—it is a difficult and complex task to track and explain voter preferences and choices.
The Mandate
First off, this mandate is not a defeat of the BJP as is being made out in several quarters. It is one thing to deny the BJP a majority of its own and another to unseat the coalition they lead at the centre.
It is just that two terms of a government led by a party with an absolute majority, has raised our expectations; such that anything less is not acceptable. In 2014, the BJP was the first party in 30 years to manage this feat. Of course, a coalition led by a party with its own majority enjoys clout in governance.
But, please keep in mind, the NDA has always been a coalition. Difference today is that BJP does not have a majority of its own. Any doubts about government formation have since been dispelled and an NDA 3.0 took charge this Sunday for a record third term.
Further, the electoral results are a mixed bag for the BJP. A case of win some, lose some:
First, it managed a landslide in Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi and Chhattisgarh.
Second, the party has expanded its electoral footprint to Kerala by winning one seat and grew it in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana.
Finally, it witnessed a substantial erosion of seats in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Maharashtra.
The party’s biggest electoral losses have came in Uttar Pradesh—the most populous state in the country that sends 80 MPs to Parliament. The party’s tally halved from what it pulled off in 2019.
Pulling together some data points, it is my argument that the BJP lost the plot in key segments of Middle India—what we call Tier-2 and Tier-3 towns. The local disgruntlement combined with perennial pan-India issues like jobs and inflation, proved to be electorally damaging for the BJP.
In a way it is a wake-up call for the party. More importantly, the spotlight on Middle India is very timely. It is already the fastest growing segment and consequently a segment which is witnessing a dramatic spike in the aspirational quotient.
And, as I have detailed in my previous two newsletters, this includes the identification and growing of the tribe of women entrepreneurs. In fact, last week’s episode (shared at the end of this newsletter) on StratNews Global is a conversation about this phenomenon with Gaurav Mehta, CEO, Dharmalife, a non-profit working in growing rural women entrepreneurs.
Spotlight on Middle India
On counting day (4 June) I came across a tweet by Srinivasan Ramani of The Hindu newspaper. After crunching vote share numbers Ramani concluded that BJP witnessed a substantial erosion in its vote share in Middle India. The loss of vote share in this segment was:
Semi-urban: 39.9% (2019: 42.5%);
Semi-rural: 37.3% (2019: 42%).
Sharing the screen grab below.
Middle India, according to data sourced from a Primus Partners report, accounts for nearly 200 million people and 37% of the country’s gross domestic product. The report further added:
“Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities of India are currently experiencing an extraordinary economic surge, catalysed by a burgeoning demographic of youth, transformative economic dynamics, and a richly diverse social and cultural tapestry.”
Not only are they key to India’s economic future, with the benefit of hindsight we also know they can influence electoral outcomes. Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP witnessed its largest erosion of seats, accounts for the largest number of Tier-2 cities—eleven in all.
Insights captured in the exit poll and shared by AxisMyIndia reinforce the story told by the voting numbers. I am aware that the exit polls are being dissed. Indeed they got the seat forecast wrong. But, the information gathered about trends in voter preferences cannot be ignored. It will be case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Please keep in mind though that the trick is to follow the trends and not the absolute numbers. Eventually, like I mentioned earlier voter choices are the outcome of a complex interplay of factors that range from hyper-local, local to national.
Exit Poll Warnings
The big trend in this general election was the swiftness with which the opposition played catch up with the BJP+. It is almost like they are snapping at their heels.
Check out the graphic above sourced from AxisMyIndia. Yes, the BJP+ continues to hold the lead, but the gap has reduced dramatically between the two general elections.
In rural India, the gap between the two political groupings was 17 percentage points in 2019. In 2024, this had shrunk to six points.
Similarly, in urban India, where the BJP+ managed the magic mark of 50%, the gap had shrunk from 23 percentage points to 13 points.
This trend is borne out across other demographic slices. Check out the graphic below. This too is source from AxisMyIndia.
Once again, the opposition has reduced the gap against the incumbent significantly. Especially among the younger age groups—India has the largest cohort of youth in the world. I have summarised it below:
18-25 years: 18 (2019); 2 (2024)
26-35 years: 20 (2019); 5 (2024)
36-50 years: 19 (2019); 10 (2024)
51-60 years: 13 (2019); 12 (2024)
61+ years: 14 (2019); 14 (2024)
This trend plays out in almost every demographic segment. Whether it be voting based on caste, religion or level of education.
If we connect the dots and work backwards from the outcome, then it is clear that in the case of Uttar Pradesh, BJP’s electoral setback was partly due to Middle India doing a rethink from the last general election. Why they did so is a surmise. Because, like I said earlier, voter choice is very complex. One can at best hazard a guess, but can’t say with certitude.
It will be interesting to see how the incumbent NDA responds to this message from Middle India. We will get the first signal in the upcoming Union Budget that will be presented soon after NDA 3.0 formally assumes charge.
Recommended Viewing/Reading
Sharing the latest post of Capital Calculus on StratNews Global.
Recently, the Reserve Bank of India Innovation Hub (RBIIH) together with SALT, an organisation devoted to bridging the gap in gender finance, released a white paper. I wrote about this in my last newsletter.
It linked India’s ability to scale its economy to the speed at which it can nurture its women entrepreneurs in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities—popularly referred to as Middle India.
The timing of the study is excellent. It comes in the backdrop of a public policy pivot over the last decade, which led to a host of initiatives undertaken by the union and state governments to empower women. A strategy inspired by teaching people how to fish, rather than being given fish. Especially in solving for access to basics like electricity, banking, cooking gas, housing, drinking water, health insurance and so on at a staggering scale.
To get a ground up view of this very compelling socio-economic transformation I spoke to Gaurav Mehta, CEO of Dharma Life. His organisation is working in rural India to encourage and create women entrepreneurs.
Till we meet again next week, stay safe.
Thank You!
Finally, a big shoutout to Aashish and Gautam for your informed responses, kind appreciation and amplification of last week’s column. Once again, grateful for the conversation initiated by all you readers. Gratitude also to all those who responded on Twitter and Linkedin.
Unfortunately, Twitter has disabled amplification of Substack links—perils of social media monopolies operating in a walled garden framework. I would be grateful therefore if you could spread the word. Nothing to beat the word of mouth.
Reader participation and amplification is key to growing this newsletter community. And, many thanks to readers who hit the like button😊.
Anil this article is so correct specially with regards the exit polls. Thank you.