MODI CABINET 2.0: BACKWARD IS THE NEW BRAHMIN
The reshuffle of the union cabinet hits the reset on social change, which could rewrite Indian polity afresh. EPISODE #31
Dear Reader,
A very Happy Monday to you.
After a protracted period of speculation the union cabinet led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi finally undertook a reshuffle—a misnomer actually because this was a massive exercise. Most of the headlines are about who is in and who is out. True, but the big picture is far more significant.
The changes undertaken have the potential of unleashing a fresh round of social change. Whether or not this will play out is something we will only know in due course. For now I dwell on the changes and their implications.
Once again, the cover photograph is from my morning walk. Somehow street life has a compelling and quaint appeal. Hope it resonates with you too.
Happy to share that last week’s column drew the best response so far. It is so heartening. Thank you dear reader for your support. Guess the story of ongoing social and political change in India is both riveting and compelling. A big shoutout to Balesh, Nimesh, Pankaj, Gautam, Vandana, Premasundaran, Mr Kelkar, Srinath and Aashish for your informed responses, appreciation and amplification. Gratitude also to all those who responded on Twitter and LinkedIn. It is key to growing this newsletter community. And, many thanks to readers who hit the like button 😊.
Read on.
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THE MAKEOVER
Last week the union government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi effected the long overdue cabinet reshuffle. The headline in the Indian Express summed up this exercise the best: “PM hits Delete and Reset”.
Yes, while the media was mostly taken in with the axing of the so-called heavy weights, it is the word “Reset” that is the big takeaway.
It can be unpacked thus:
Caste composition of the union cabinet has tilted overwhelmingly towards the OBCs or the Other Backward Class;
Larger representation for women;
Unprecedented centre stage to the long neglected North East of India.
In terms of magnitudes, over 50 members of the jumbo cabinet of 87 are made up of Women, OBCs, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. This is indeed a tipping point where an India long ignored is now formally sharing political power. Something that will flatten the hierarchy of the social order making upward mobility that much less difficult. Tag this with the larger democratisation of economic power that has been playing out over the last decade and more—which this column has repeatedly flagged, including last week—and the big takeaway is: Backward is the new Brahmin.
This is a political metaphor for the process of fundamental transformation wherein a long neglected India is claiming its legitimate status in the social order and thereby rewriting the national narrative. In theory the implications underlying this makeover wherein the ruling elites are witnessing a dilution in their clout is another effort by the Modi regime to weaponise social change to rewire Indian polity.
Yes, the latest initiative is like every battle plan: Perfect till the action begins. And the first test is coming when Uttar Pradesh goes to poll next year. Till then the proof of concept is a matter of conjecture. So for now it makes better sense to scrutinise some of the changes and assess the possible fallout.
Mandal vs Kamandal
One implication of the makeover of the union cabinet is how it is has the potential to rework a politically defining debate: Mandal vs Kamandal. This is key to understanding the political reset in North India over the last three decades, particularly in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar—who between them elect 120 MPs to the Lok Sabha.
The genesis of this was the early 1990s when India witnessed one of the most powerful social transformations since Independence. In fact leaders like Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh Yadav were among those who rode this social makeover and managed to wrest political power.
This process was kicked off with the implementation of the Mandal Commission report—named after its Chairman, Bindeshwari Prasad Mandal, an MP from Bihar. The report finalised in the early 1980s identified over one in two in the population to be OBCs; accordingly it made out a case for 27% reservation in public employment for them. The report however remained in the cold storage to be only implemented in the early 1990s with dramatic consequences.
The emergence of the OBC leaders coincided with the beginning of the decline of the Congress, the then principal pole of Indian politics, and the ascendancy of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP’s political weapon of choice was Kamandal—the metaphor for championing Hindutva to unite its vote bank. The next decade and more was a playoff between Mandal and Kamandal—splitting the Hindu vote bank down the middle in North India.
The arrival of Modi on the national scene initiated the reset to this phase of politics. Slowly and steadily Modi reinvented the BJP’s social base and accelerated the pivot towards the non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits—eroding the support base of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) respectively.
By doing so the BJP managed to successfully shrink the Mandal-Kamandal divide. In fact most analysts identify this weaning away of a section of OBCs and Scheduled Castes as one of the key reasons for the audacious wins scripted by the BJP led by Modi in both the general elections of 2014, 2019 and the unprecedented sweep to power in UP in 2017. Not only did it expand the BJP’s political base it also diluted the strength of the SP and the BSP.
The cabinet rejig has only formalised this growing convergence of Mandal and Kamandal. If indeed this new political edifice endures it will further erode the ability of the opposition to challenge the BJP in UP.
The Ministry of Cooperation
Not sure if you remember the iconic film Manthan. It was directed by Shyam Benegal and the story was co-written by him and Verghese Kurien--the force behind the creation of Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation. It had the finest ensemble of actors my generation ever saw: Naseeruddin Shah, Girish Karnad, Smita Patil, Kulbhushan Kharbanda, Anant Nag and Amrish Puri among others.
It was a film on the power of organising grassroots people in a cooperative and the consequent economic and social empowerment. The full movie is available on YouTube if you do desire to catch it. For now I am enclosing the concluding clip which so compellingly captures the dramatic social change managed through empowerment at the grassroots.
What was dramatised in Manthan is in fact a way of life in states like Gujarat and Maharashtra. Not only does it economically benefit the local population it is also a source of enormous political power. In fact the rise of the BJP-led by Modi in Gujarat was actually scripted by ousting the Congress from the leadership of these cooperatives. And the man who led this was Amit Shah, the incumbent Home Minister and the head of the newly minted Ministry of Cooperation.
So politicians and analysts are not entirely wrong in fearing a sinister design in this strategy. While their fears may be well founded, there is also no denying the fact that the idea underlying the cooperative movement is worth emulating in other sectors too—for example it could be used to monetise or incentivise the small or medium farmer to sell a small batch of their produce in the market at a cost-plus price; as a collective they will command a much better price especially in the new ecosystem scripted by the recently amended farm laws. Seen this way it fits in with the larger strategy of this government in encouraging economic empowerment over entitlement.
As I wrote last week the emergence of an India long ignored is now reaching a critical mass. As a result the growing footprint is beginning to get monetised. Which is why this transformation is so profound.
Not only is this dismantling status quo it is also gradually improving the economic lot of a new crop of the populace—this is compared to the conditions that prevailed earlier when they lived sans basic amenities like electricity, cooking gas, sanitation facilities, banking, telephones and drinking water.
As an example of monetisation I am sharing a report from the Economic Times quoting an official from Amazon about how this New India is holding their sales together in an otherwise devastating year.
In the final analysis it is clear that the Union Cabinet rejig is a well thought out strategy which can be potentially transformative. Whether it will net these desired outcomes is an entirely different story though.
Recommended Reading
Very often in life we take things for granted.
There is no bigger example of this than the advancement in medical science. It has in fact lulled us into complacency and a seeming sense of invincibility. That is till the covid-19 pandemic, which has its dodgy origins in Wuhan, China, struck.
Just because a pandemic of this nature did not occur previously either because of growing resistance in the human body or the fantastic advancement in medical care we simply assumed it would not happen. Similarly, till the terror strike of 9/11 on New York City, most had come to believe that the US was secure against terrorists. Most of us forgot how previously the authorities had managed to ward off several such attacks—which were never disclosed to the general public.
Sharing a brilliant piece from the New York Times magazine which explains this so well (you may need a subscription to access it though). If you do wish to read please click here.
I am sharing a few bits to convey the sense of the piece. It is unmissable.
“Another reason we have a hard time recognizing this kind of progress is that it tends to be measured not in events but in nonevents: the smallpox infection that didn’t kill you at age 2; the accidental scrape that didn’t give you a lethal bacterial infection; the drinking water that didn’t poison you with cholera.”
“In a sense, human beings have been increasingly protected by an invisible shield, one that has been built, piece by piece, over the last few centuries, keeping us ever safer and further from death. It protects us through countless interventions, big and small: the chlorine in our drinking water, the ring vaccinations that rid the world of smallpox, the data centers mapping new outbreaks all around the planet.”
“A crisis like the global pandemic of 2020-21 gives us a new perspective on all that progress. Pandemics have an interesting tendency to make that invisible shield suddenly, briefly visible. For once, we’re reminded of how dependent everyday life is on medical science, hospitals, public-health authorities, drug supply chains and more.
And an event like the Covid-19 crisis does something else as well: It helps us perceive the holes in that shield, the vulnerabilities, the places where we need new scientific breakthroughs, new systems, new ways of protecting ourselves from emergent threats.”
Till we meet again next week. Stay safe.
Must appreciate your unusual and remarkable observations and analysis Anil. While much was said and written about the cabinet reshuffle, the caste factor that effects our election results, went unnoticed. This government means business, as more important than performance, it is the ability to win elections, that is the ultimate goal of politicians. Somewhere, there is a subtle connection between this article and last week's write up on "two Indias". Great reading !
Always to the point. Very informative. Keep this going