LIVES vs LIVELIHOOD: THE DEBATE RETURNS
The surge in the covid-19 pandemic is forcing lockdowns, threatening livelihoods of those at the bottom of the pyramid. EPISODE #21
Dear Reader,
A Monday of cheer to you.
The last two weeks only confirmed our worst nightmare.
Not only has the SARS-COV-2 virus, which originated in Wuhan, China, spread ferociously, a rickety and sell-past-the-date medical infrastructure has, as expected, been overwhelmed. Sins of decades of neglect of such a vital sector are catching up.
Social media—our primary means of communication—is flooded with heart rending stories of fatalities and cries of distress. It is as though not one family has been spared the woe. Regret to say so, but for the toxic few among us this is an opportunity to stoke more chaos. But remember for the scores of such individuals spreading toxic hate (often through disinformation) there are million others—including the frontline covid warriors—quietly going about helping as they can. These unsung heroes is the reason a billion-plus people are still hanging in there and quietly doing their bit in the nation’s fight against overwhelming odds. Indeed this is cause for hope and motivation.
At the same time though the strategy to deploy the lockdown as a means of breaking the chain of infection will exact a price, sooner if not later. The first round impact will inevitably be borne by those at the bottom of the pyramid. A difficult trade off indeed: lives versus livelihoods. This week I put the spotlight on this challenge. Something that will have to be addressed once the present spread of covid-19 pandemic is contained. Especially in the period till the vaccine rollout is extended to at least 300 million people.
On Sunday, the Election Commission, which has been at the receiving end of a lot of vicious criticism recently, declared the results of the mini general election. Unlike what the psephologists had forecast there were no real surprises. Three incumbent regimes in West Bengal (Trinamool Congress), Assam (Bharatiya Janata Party) and Kerala (Left Democratic Front) were returned to power. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK pulled off a win, signalling the rise of a new era—it was the first state election since the demise of the DMK chief M Karunanidhi and AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa.
The Congress, the oldest party in the country, has once again been left holding the wooden spoon. The BJP on the other hand, despite a remarkable performance, failed to walk the talk on unseating Mamata Banerjee; their critics, who are a well oiled machine especially on social media, will no doubt have their tail up. I marvel at the electorate’s power of messaging: they re-elected Banerjee’s government with a massive mandate but handed her a personal defeat in Nandigram. No doubt, the latest round of elections pose tough questions to the current principal pole of Indian politics, the BJP, as well as the Congress party—which has been struggling since it was routed in the 2014 general election. Fascinating yes, but hold the thought though.
At present all our energies are focused on battling covid-19.
Read on
THE DIFFICULT TRADE OFF
At times coincidences can be startling. Around this time last year, India was in the grips of a stringent nation-wide lockdown. Strangely enough the lockdown, in some form or the other, is back. That is where the comparison stops though.
Last year at this time India undertook the lockdown anticipating a big surge in the spread of the SARS-COV-2 virus. The fear was understandable as that was the experience in several other countries. And given that this was a once in a century pandemic there was no playbook to fall back upon. The idea was that a lockdown will break the chain of infection. More importantly it gave the country an opportunity to rustle up emergency medicines and medical gear—which at that point of time were inadequate to cope even with normal health shocks, leave alone a pandemic.
Fast forward to this year, the circumstances are fundamentally different. The spread of the virus which was seemingly ebbing witnessed an abrupt spike. Mostly, with the benefit of hindsight, experts aver that the virus had mutated and a more resilient and infectious version had emerged. South America too is currently in the throes of a similar surge in infections from a new strain. And, like India, they too had witnessed a perceptible ebb in the infections—which turned out to be the calm before the storm. The lockdown in this context is a tacit admission of a tactical defeat: A desperate measure, for a desperate time with no guarantee of success.
The Lockdown Effect
The lockdown fallout has been almost immediate.
The best proxy measure for this is the mobility data tracked by Google. (Those interested in tracking it can click here.) The data shows a steep drop in mobility for most categories in the period since the lockdown was reinforced in several parts of the country.
Most worrying is the 42% contraction (compared to the baseline) in mobility data for workplaces and 38% for public transport. And given the surge in infections and no other means at their disposal, the state governments are likely to keep extending the lockdown. In other words the mobility trends are likely to go from bad to worse.
And sadly this reversal in mobility trends comes just when the country was gradually inching towards normalcy and etching a nascent economic recovery. The worst hit is going to be the services sector of the economy, also the largest employer outside of agriculture. And in this the contact economy, primarily hospitality and the aviation sector, will bear the brunt. In other words brace for a fresh round of job losses; hopefully not to the extent we witnessed last year—when pruning the wage bill became the primary means for companies to shore up their bottom lines.
Livelihoods Lost
The first round cause and effect of lockdown—evident from the experience last year—is quite linear.
As a result of the nation-wide lockdown last year the growth in the country’s national income contracted by a record 24.3% in the first quarter ended June of 2020-21. As the lockdown was wound down and the economy began to regain its stride some of this contraction was offset in the subsequent quarters. Overall the economy is projected to contract by around 7%, effectively signalling a gap year for the Indian economy in 2020-21.
Since this latest phase of lockdown has not been a hard stop nationally the impact is unlikely to be so inclement. But the bad news is that the brunt of the second and third round impact of this lockdown will be borne by the less well off. Already the medical costs of a SARS-COV-2 infection are setting back household finances further. And this when they are yet to recover from the dent in incomes caused by the previous round of job losses.
Particularly distressful is the status of the nowhere people: migrants. A joint survey undertaken by the Inferential Survey Statistics and Research Foundation (ISS&RF) and ICRIER of 2,917 migrant workers from the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and West Bengal discovered an uncomfortable truth: the reverse migrants witnessed a contraction of their family income by a massive 86% to Rs 2,033. Ashok Gulati, the agricultural economist, shared the findings in a piece published in the Indian Express.
“Of the migrants who left cities and industrial towns for their native villages and small towns, 35.4% had no employment, another 35.8% were involved in agriculture as self-employed (SE) labour, perhaps on their joint family farms, 9.7% worked as agriculture labour, 4.6% in MGNREGA and other public works and 12.2% as casuals in other non-agriculture work.”
As Gulati argues the massive relief spending of Rs1.7 trillion to shore the livelihoods of those at the bottom of the pyramid clearly missed the migrants returning to their villages. This is not to make the case that the relief package was of no use. Absolutely not. But for the free food grains and direct transfers the situation could have been a lot worse. Instead this is to argue that in any such policy initiative there is always the risk that many intended beneficiaries may fall through the cracks. And public policy needs to be mindful.
Which brings us back to where we started: dealing with the difficult trade-off between lives and livelihoods. Undoubtedly it will have to be very finely calibrated. If not, the fallout could be devastating. A shock that may make nix the nascent rebound of the Indian economy.
Recommended Reading
Normally this where I share stuff with you to either read or view. Something that I happen to come across or sometimes references passed on by you. No different today.
Just that this is no tome. No video. Instead it is an example of raw hope—something that we desperately seek at an extremely difficult moment. When ordinary people do something extraordinary. It made my spine tingle. Guess, I am just a sucker for feel good stories.
This is from the twitter feed of Harnidh. Full disclosure: I do not know the person or follow them on twitter and presume this submission is authentic. The full thread can be accessed here. I suggest you check out the thread and the responses on Harnidh’s timeline.
“Needed to get meds delivered to my grandparents in delhi. Booked swiggy genie. Chemist didn’t have stock. The DE, Bhupinder Singh, called me to ask if it was for me. I told him I was trying to help my grandparents. He said ‘order cancel mat karo. I’ll handle.’”
“Bhupinder bhaiya went to two different shops, made sure he got everything, called me multiple times to tell me he’s taking care of things. Reached Nani’s house, helped her put heavy stuff inside, and put her on a call to make sure I knew she got everything.”
“Finally he said ‘number rakhlo. Yahin paas mein rehta hun. Help chahiye toh bataana.’ I’m still sobbing simply because the scariest of times don’t scare our better angels away and I’m so grateful for that. My god. Bhupinder bhaiya for the win.”
Exactly why I believe we will overcome.
Till we meet again next week. Stay safe.
Dear Anil, the beautiful yellow sunflower with the caption "hope is always bright " is so attractive eye catching. Lets hope and pray these difficult and grim days are over soon.Though the present scenerio with all sectors of the economy crumbling due to this virus makes it a difficult situation.The trade off between lives and livelihoods sums up the state of the economy today. CMIE has also presented similar data and analysis.The indian migrant workers during this pande mic have faced multiple hardships. , with factories and workplaces shutdown due to the lockdown , millions of workers had to deal with loss of income, food shortages and uncertainty about their future.Many of them and their families went hungry and with great difficulty they went back to their villages.The measures taken by central and state govts are not enough to bring them out of their misery.
In the urban areas the lockdown is implemented more severely as a result the decline in per capita income is greater.The closure of markets , shopping complexes, malls etc adversely affects the income of these areas .There has been a huge decline in govt revenues also .In fact the entire economic activity of the country has seen a huge fall.The privatization plans of the govt have also not been implemented.Our country is facing extraordinary challenging times. India has to find a way to cushion the demand side shocks induced by the lockdown and containment measures. As your article ends with a feel good story of harnidh and a ray of hope , I pray that our country emerges out of this dismal situation and our politican do something worthwhile for the common man. At present a microscopic virus is reigning supreme over the most powerful species on planet Earth .
Very grim situation for the migrant workers and some other areas of the economic activity like the service sector. The only silver lining is that a normal monsoon is expected and a promise of good growth figures in the distant future. Very well written.