INDIA'S MOMENT
India is heading three key international bodies, providing it an unprecedented opportunity to influence the global discourse EPISODE # 102
Dear Reader,
A very Happy Monday to you.
Last week India formally took over the leadership of the G20—the influential global high table for managing economic cooperation.
Keep in mind that about two months ago, India also assumed the Presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the multilateral body which seeks to ensure stability and security across EuroAsia. Finally, India is also the serving President of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), entrusted with the task of maintaining international peace and security.
Together, this is a rare vantage spot on the global high table for India to influence world opinion. The prevailing international context—defined by extremely challenging security, economic and humanitarian circumstances—ensures that India’s leadership potential and acumen will be severely tested. So this week I focus on the implications of India assuming the G20 presidency. Do read and share your feedback.
The cover picture this week was a striking wall mural I had stumbled upon.
A big shoutout to Niranjan, Balesh, Srinivasan, Gautam, Premasundaran, Aashish and Vandana for your informed responses, kind appreciation and amplification of last week’s column. Gratitude also to all those who responded on Twitter and Linkedin. Reader participation and amplification is key to growing this newsletter community. And, many thanks to readers who hit the like button😊.
A HAPPY COINCIDENCE
Like I pointed out in the introduction, India has a rare opportunity at proving its leadership mettle on the global stage, having simultaneously assumed leadership of three key international bodies.
For December India is the serving President of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the global body mandated with the task of maintaining international peace and security. Similarly, little over two months ago it took over the leadership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the multilateral body which seeks to ensure stability and security across EuroAsia. And then last week it assumed the Presidency of the G20 group of countries—the new global high table for securing economic cooperation.
Apart from the fact that it boosts India’s international image—and renews its claim to be a permanent member of every global high table, including the UNSC—this is also a big test of the country’s leadership skills.
Managing consensus in a globally divided world is one thing.
An equally daunting task is for India to influence global thought such that by the time it hands off its Presidency to Brazil next year it would have laid the foundations for a much needed new world order—in which the driving mantra is cooperation and sustainability.
The Challenge
The bad news though is that the odds are stacked against it at the moment.
Never before has the world witnessed so many back-to-back shocks. First, there was the covid-19 pandemic, which had dodgy origins in Wuhan, China. It caused countless loss of lives, livelihood and disruption in global supply chains. This was followed by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which further upended global supply chains—particularly for oil and food grains—and made a bad situation worse.
And just when most of the world was still trying to cope with these devastating fallouts, the US Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive tightening of interest rates to tamp down on surging domestic inflation. Among other things it dried up global liquidity and led to a strengthening of the dollar against most currencies—which is nothing but exporting inflation to the rest of the world as devaluation makes imports that much more expensive.
Meanwhile another time bomb is ticking: the Chinese economy. The enigmatic country seems to be facing its worst challenge ever.
The health crisis triggered by the covid-19 pandemic continues unabated two years later. It is becoming increasingly clear that the Chinese vaccine turned out to be a dud (very similar to the scud missiles launched by Iraq in the Gulf war). As a result the lockdown—the Plan-B for most countries—became Plan-A for China.
The end-result, the world’s factory and the second largest economy ($17.73 trillion) has slowed dramatically—the exact extent remains a mystery, especially since the Chinese data systems are always suspect. But the problem can no longer be denied.
And now the health problem is rapidly morphing into a political crisis, with protests breaking out across the country. If China does implode as some critics seem to suggest, or even comes anywhere close to it, the world is going to be dealing with another shock.
Already the outcome is scary. Large parts of the world—including Europe, UK and the United States—are flirting with a recession. A meltdown of the Chinese economy would scupper whatever hope the world has at the moment.
To add to the growing list of challenges, the trust quotient—a prerequisite to build consensus—in a deeply divided world is at a premium.
Worryingly, the recent record of the developed world is anything but inspiring. The manner in which they preempted production of covid-19 jabs, the only defence against the pandemic, was despicable, to say the least. It left the South (the developing and under-developed countries) at the mercy of a once in a century pandemic.
And ironically this is the very same clutch of countries who don’t waste a moment to wax eloquent about humanitarian excesses in the rest of the world.
In India, home to the second largest population in the world, the outcome of this vaccine shortfall would have been devastating, given its sell-past-the-date health infrastructure. Luckily the government played excellent defence in scrambling home-grown jabs—and even shared them with select countries under the Vaccine Maitri or Vaccine Friendship.
It also successfully staved off the health crisis snowballing into economic devastation by rolling out the free food programme for 800 million people. Simultaneously it rolled out a series of economic reforms—some, like the farm laws, had to be rolled back—which improved the plumbing in the system; which no doubt has contributed to the surprisingly quick rebound of the Indian economy.
The long and short of this is that India has emerged, in comparison with other countries, relatively unscathed. More importantly it has, in the last few years, exhibited by its actions that it is both unafraid to state its views unequivocally, take on threats to its sovereignty and that it is willing to shoulder global responsibility.
Its recent record in attempting to forge solutions to global problems, including cautioning Russia against continuing with its ongoing conflict against Ukraine, and the fact that the world desperately needs a mediator, provides the launchpad for leadership of the G20.
Like they say every challenge is an opportunity.
Yes We Can
India did not waste a moment. On the very first day of its Presidency of the G20, Prime Minister Narendra Modi penned a public piece in which he signalled India’s plans.
The PM commenced by setting an ambitious agenda:
“The previous 17 presidencies of the G20 delivered significant results — ensuring macro-economic stability, rationalising international taxation, and relieving the debt burden on countries, among many other outcomes. We will benefit from these achievements, and build further upon them.
However, as India assumes this important mantle, I ask myself — can the G20 go further still? Can we catalyse a fundamental mindset shift, to benefit humanity as a whole?
I believe we can.”
Thereafter the PM did not mince words in spelling out the nature of the challenge that it has inherited as the next President of the G20.
“Our mindsets are shaped by our circumstances. Through all of history, humanity lived in scarcity. We fought for limited resources, because our survival depended on denying them to others. Confrontation and competition — between ideas, ideologies and identities — became the norm.
Unfortunately, we remain trapped in the same zero-sum mindset even today. We see it when countries fight over territory or resources. We see it when supplies of essential goods are weaponised. We see it when vaccines are hoarded by a few, even as billions remain vulnerable.
Some may argue that confrontation and greed are just human nature. I disagree. If humans were inherently selfish, what would explain the lasting appeal of so many spiritual traditions that advocate the fundamental oneness of us all?”
The India Way
The Prime Minister then went on to argue that India’s recent experiences, especially its ability to build and roll out Digital Public Goods (DPGs) at scale for public good, to suggest that there is an alt-view to the zero-sum approach adopted so far to resolve global challenges and differences.
“Our citizen-centric governance model takes care of even our most marginalised citizens, while nurturing the creative genius of our talented youth.
We have tried to make national development not an exercise in top-down governance, but rather a citizen-led “people’s movement”.
We have leveraged technology to create digital public goods that are open, inclusive, and inter-operable. These have delivered revolutionary progress in fields as varied as social protection, financial inclusion, and electronic payments.
For all these reasons, India’s experiences can provide insights on possible global solutions.”
It is clear then that India is willing to seize its moment. It may well be the tipping point in India’s long standing bid to be part of the global high table.
Recommended Viewing
Sharing the latest post of Capital Calculus on StratNews Global.
This time I put the spotlight on the draft Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2022 circulated by the union government for comments. If you recall the government had withdrawn the previous draft, arguing that it was too cumbersome.
To understand the why and what of this draft legislation I spoke to Rahul Matthan, partner at TriLegal and one of the most active voices on data privacy. The conversation more than lived upto my expectations.
Rahul explains the pros and cons of the draft law, its shortcomings and how it approaches the delicate trade-off between ensuring privacy and enabling mining of personal data for commercial use. Do watch and share your feedback.
Sharing the link below:
Till we meet again next week, stay safe.
Inspiration for change from a group leader has to come through personal conduct. In this regard India has an outstanding record under the leadership of the current government, as pointed out in your article Anil. Helping out poorer nations with vaccines during the Covid crisis and holding on to a strong non aligned position, would definitely have created respect and trust within the community of nations. India is on the right path, I think, to creating a niche platform for itself as a world leader and the opportunity is ripe now, like never before. A very timely write up for us to sit up and take note of what follows.
Dear Anil,
A very interesting article! It is a proud moment for India to be heading 3 multilateral Bodies,( G -20, SCO and UNSC).
But it comes with a number of challenges.There is geopolitical turmoil, uncertainty over post pandemic economic recovery, International relations are not very stable, Russia -Ukraine war and the fact that the world is getting more and more divided.
But , we all know India's resilience and that we have performed better than many economies in these difficult times .
So, best wishes to team Modi to make a strong impact on the world!!