INDIA'S JAB MASTER CLASS REVISITED
The outstanding success of the covid-19 vaccine project demonstrates India's unique ability to achieve scale by tapping indigenous technology. EPISODE 41
Hi Everyone,
A Monday of cheer to all of you.
Last week India achieved a major milestone: It logged a staggering 750 million (or 75 crore) covid-19 jabs cumulatively. It crowned this moment by logging a stupendous 25.16 million (or 2.5 crore) jabs on Friday! It is the highest ever on a single day.
Unless you are wearing ideological blinders, this is a singular achievement, no matter which way we look at it. And this at a time when most countries are struggling to vaccinate populations, which are a mere fraction of India’s. Most importantly it has provided India a cushion in the unfortunate event of a fresh spike in covid-19. The memories and wounds of the vicious second wave are still fresh.
So this week I put the spotlight on India’s jab project and revisit an earlier piece where I had argued how the execution of the plan is a masterclass on implementing a project of scale using an indigenously designed tech backbone and domestically manufactured vaccines. Frankly, this is a story which should be told over and over. Not just because it is an exceptional episode. But simply because it is a ‘Yes we Can’ moment. Something that will provide inspiration to a country which had gotten used to being constantly overwhelmed by the odds.
This week’s picture is from my trip to Nehru Place seeking a replacement for my TV remote. I was unable to get one, but the ingenious lot of shopkeepers managed to locate a mechanic to repair it. The complex located in South Delhi is a dangerously overcrowded collection of what we call hole-in-the-wall shops. More of this discovery later, maybe in another newsletter. For now enjoy the picture.
A big shoutout to Kapil, Vivek, Yugainder, Gautam, Premasundaran, Vandana and Aashish for your informed responses, appreciation and amplification. Gratitude also to all those who responded on Twitter. Reader participation and amplification is key to growing this newsletter community. And, many thanks to readers who hit the like button 😊.
If you are not already a subscriber, please do sign up and spread the word.
800 MILLION JABS
On 17 September India administered a record 25.16 million (or 2.5 crore) covid-19 vaccines across the country. And this just days after it crossed Mount 750 million (or 75 crore) vaccines cumulatively.
The impact on the aggregate was instantaneous: India cumulative jabs crossed 800 million—just shy of logging a billion jabs. So far about 600 million people have received their first dose, while the balance 200 million (more than half the population of the United States) are fully vaccinated. There is only one word to describe this: Wow!
The subtext of this achievement is equally if not more significant.
For one, the vaccine was manufactured domestically. Yes, the technology was procured from an international collaboration. I recall how experts, some with excellent credentials, casting doubts on India’s ability to produce the vaccine domestically. And later disparaging its efficiency. Especially given the staggering requirement of nearly 2 billion vaccines (two doses per person for the target population of 900 million).
Second, the logistics of executing this in a country like India is daunting to say the least. Decades of neglect has ensured its existing health infrastructure is sell-past-the-date. Further, the vaccines needed to be stored at a particular temperature. In short the desired logistics were as good as non-existent. On top of it the government, to avoid overcrowding, was adamant that anyone could take the two jabs anywhere in the country. Like the critics, most believed this business of ease of giving a jab to be a pipe dream.
But the record jabs delivered last Friday told us a refreshingly inspiring story of success. The growth of jabs (check out the graphic below) is now in exponential mode—it is something like what compounding does to your savings portfolio after about seven years; it just takes off. So the government may not be off the mark in signalling that the jab project will be successfully concluded by December. Watch this space as they say.
Already, the jab project is India’s ‘Yes we can’ moment.
One Nation, One Jab
The most heartening is that this is a genuine ‘Make in India’ project. And at the core of it is the indigenously designed information technology backbone which allowed India to leap frog and avoid getting tangled in the usual bureaucratic red tape and poor logistics.
And for this we have to thank the Aadhaar project—a legacy this government inherited from its predecessor, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance. This unique 12-digit identity number issued to every resident of India is the foundation on which the technology stack enabling this masterclass in scale was put together. By providing 1.3 billion people with an Aadhaar what the government did was to create a digital foundation for developing an information highway connecting 240 million (or 24 crore) households. Essentially it created a digital platform which could be leveraged for a host of functions, including delivering public services.
The first test was the launch of Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) by the UPA of cooking gas or LPG subsidies to the beneficiaries by linking their bank account and Aadhaar. It was a fair success. Yet, for some inexplicable reason UPA never emotionally committed to either Aadhaar (the project was almost nixed) or DBT.
The incoming Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance, after some initial reservations, threw its weight behind Aadhaar. In fact, their record in the last seven years, suggests that they have weaponised it. The national vaccine project entailing One Nation, One Jab is a super example.
As I wrote previously the task though not short on ambition was very daunting. Those who wish to re-read it please click here.
Keep in mind:
We are talking about a cohort of 900 million people, probably the largest in the world (given the opacity of information about China, where the virus originated, one can’t say for sure);
Each of them has to be vaccinated twice. In other words we are talking about 1.8 billion vaccines;
And given the current circumstances, there is no guarantee of a person returning to the same location for the second jab. It has to be delivered on the principle of One Nation, One Jab; anywhere, any place
The solution was the Co-Win platform built on the foundation of Aadhaar. From the beginning the emphasis was on an open architecture such that the platform could pivot to adapt to any challenge. A good example is how it incorporated off-line walk-ins alongside on-line registrations—using eight IDs other than just Aadhaar. And the ultimate flourish was that the platform instantly generated an individual’s vaccine certificate digitally.
Nandan Nilekani, the architect and founder of Aadhaar, described this famously during a recent chat on Clubhouse.
“The fact that India is proving to be the vaccine capital of the world is good. The digital infrastructure, CoWin, developed by RS Sharma is amazing. My friend in Seattle got his vaccination certificate scribbled on a piece of paper. My vaccination certificate was digitally sent and was QR coded, I got it on my phone within 2 minutes of my vaccination. All this has given us a big burst of self-confidence.”
Yes We Can
Nilekani is spot on. The big intangible gain from this is what the jab project is doing to India’s mojo. It is as I described earlier the ‘Yes we can’ moment. Especially since the jab project is not just a one-off masterclass in undertaking projects of scale. In the last seven years, building on the foundation it inherited, this government has rolled out several projects which are beginning to, for the first time, bind India as one economic entity.
The best example is the idea of One Nation, One Tax captured by the roll-out of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Overnight India went from a complex federal tax set up beset with multiple rates and logistic nightmares to a uniform tax structure. And this would not have been possible without cooperative federalism. It was best explained by Haseeb Drabu, the former finance minister of Jammu and Kashmir and who was also part of the founding team which rolled out GST, when he described it as a “pooling of sovereignties”.
True the GST as it exists has its warts. But there is no denying that it is a huge improvement over the inefficient set-up that existed earlier. Even its worst critics within the GST Council, the apex body in charge of implementation of the indirect tax, are not willing to walk it back. Indeed it is still a work in progress.
An equally outstanding example is the use of the Aadhaar powered technology stack to roll out of digital services like UPI or Unified Payments Interface—a system that enables seamless, cost free and inter-operable bank payments (the average number of UPI linked transactions which has been growing exponentially now averages a massive 3 billion a month).
A similar example of scale in public good projects is the One Nation, One Ration Card project. Most states have already created the platform to support this programme wherein the Public Distribution System or PDS can be accessed from anywhere in the country by identified beneficiaries—typically migrant workers. Once again an individual beneficiary’s Aadhaar is used to identify them. Imagine the convenience. Especially for migrant workers—they can now access their quota of food grains from any outlet in the country.
All these projects are slowly and steadily beginning to instil self-confidence and create processes to roll out projects of such scale. Over time this can add upto one other thing: India will rediscover its mojo.
Recommended Reading
Last week we saw a big development in Indian politics. The feisty Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh was sacked by his party command (read Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra). The acrimonious exit of a sitting CM comes less than six months from the state election which so far favoured a reelection of the Congress. To everyone, except the Congress high command and their cheer leaders, the move is a self goal. Worse it plunges a key state bordering Pakistan into political foment; at a time when things are on a boil in Afghanistan and there are legitimate fears of this spilling over into India.
At the same time this may also set in motion other events which may not portend well for the political opposition, which has been trying desperately to find their groove after the demoralising rout suffered in the general elections of 2014 and 2019.
Check out what former Jammu-Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah had to say in his tweet:
Earlier this year I had actually asked the uncomfortable question: Is it time for India to look beyond the Congress? Sharing the column again. Those interested in reading it please click here.
Till we meet again next week. Stay safe.
Hard work pays and the painstaking process of providing the huge population with the Aadhar number has paved the way for rapid growth, development and achievements not thought within our capabilities previously. The India tottering during second Covid wave, is emerging victorious. From next month the government plans export and donate vaccines to other countries. A proud moment really.
Dear Anil,
it is always a pleasure to read your article as it focuses on positive side of our large overpopulated country .India averaged over one crore doses a day during the week September 16 to 22 proving that the required rate of 1.1 crore daily doses is within reach. The infrastructure is improving day by day and the operational vaccination centres have increased substantially.
However, to ensure that more indians do not die of covid 19, our country has the challenge of further increasing the pace of vaccinations even as it plans to resume vaccine exports.