India-United States: Friends or Frenemies?
President Trump's petulance and increasing unpredictability is casting a shadow on US relations with both allies and partners, including India. EPISODE #230
Dear Reader,
A very happy Monday to you.
Little over a week ago the Trump-Musk bromance blew up spectacularly. Around the same time, the Trump administration unexpectedly started to flag fault lines in its relations with India, defined by another bromance: Trump-Modi.
Over the last one month, several officials, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, have publicly questioned India’s strategic choices, especially its relations with Russia. The decision to suspend new interviews for student visas only reinforced the fears that all is not well in the relations between the two countries.
The unbridled unpredictability and petulance of President Trump is only adding more fuel to the fire. In fact, it prompted Walter Russel Mead, a foreign policy scholar, to pose the question: Will Trump Lose India?
This week I explore the confusing reality of the Trump presidency and its implications for India-US relations. The cover picture is sourced from the White House photo archives.
Happy reading.
Trumpistan
Six months ago, mere weeks after President Donald Trump took charge at the White House, analysts were talking up a new bromance. I am not talking about the one with “First Buddy”, Elon Musk, who has since fallen out of favour.
Instead, this is about the rekindling of the bromance between the leaders of two nations: Trump 2.0 and Modi 3.0. They had previously engaged during the first Presidency of Trump and the second term of Modi.
On paper, both countries sport complementary characteristics. While one is the world’s largest economy and the other was the soon to be fourth largest economy. Both had a common adversary in China—the world’s second largest economy and also the latest challenger to US hegemony. And of course, both are democracies—one is the oldest and the other is the largest—with a history of soft power exchanges.
As a result, most believed that the bromance and strategic compulsions would help India and the United States to strike a new bond and renew their terms of engagement to get past the bumps that had cropped up towards the tail-end of the Biden regime.
In fact, inspired by the first Trump-Modi summit meeting earlier this year, I was prompted to write:
“Last week, President Donald Trump hosted Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a summit meeting in the White House.
Despite deep differences over tariffs and immigration, the two sides struck out to etch a new chapter in India-US relations—the history of which can be traced back to the moment then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee decided to cross the Rubicon and boldly bid for a strong relationship with the US.
The outcome of the meeting was succinctly summed up in PM Modi’s penchant for acronyms: MAGA (Make America Great Again)+ MIGA (Make India Great Again)=MEGA.
The trick though is for both sides to walk-the-talk.”
Sharing the newsletter below, in case you wish to re-read it.
Looking back, the last sentence—The trick though is for both sides to walk-the-talk—in the introduction was the operative part. Somehow this seems to be eluding the two sides. Worse, sparks are flying and the risks of a MEGA flop show are real.
To its credit, India is yet to formally react to the blame game unleashed by the US administration. It has endured this statesman like stance, despite growing political taunts from the main opposition party, Congress.
The social media influencers have been less forgiving though, especially after the US emerged in Pakistan’s corner in the recent face-off over the Pahalgam terror strike—wherein 26 victims were religiously profiled by Pakistan sponsored terrorists, before being brutally shot in front of their family members.
Further, President Trump’s desire to claim credit for any deal has led him to make social media pronouncements—like his daily rant about how he brokered a cease-fire in the recent skirmish just when Pakistan had suffered a TKO (Technical Knockout)—which fail even a basic fact-check. His petulance, wherein he continues to stick by his false claim, only worsens the stress lines.
These unwarranted frictions, if not contained, can widen the trust deficit between the two countries. And this at a time when the world is witnessing its most chaotic phase of geopolitics, since the Cold War era. I would like to believe that friend-shoring should be the mantra for survival in these tough times.
Alarm Bells
Normally, diplomatic frictions, even among friendly countries, are par for the course. Even in the case of US and India, recent history is replete with such examples. But, they have never derailed the trajectory of the relationship.
Take the civil nuclear deal, which was inked in 2005. India, under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, was very keen to clinch it in his tenure. Especially, since it was Vajpayee’s regime that chose to cross the Rubicon—abandoning India’s non-alignment stance and embracing a relationship with the United States.
The two sides almost clinched the deal in 2003, but pulled back from the brink. India was very miffed. But, then both sides agreed to disagree and move forward on points of convergence—rather than let differences derail the budding relationship.
However, what we have witnessed in Trump 2.0, over and above the President’s petulance and unpredictability, is the lack of circumspection when it comes to dealing with differences. It is one thing to air them behind closed doors and another to do so in public—smacks of political immaturity.
For example, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, launched into a tirade against India, while addressing the meeting of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum in Washington DC on 3 June.
“You (India) generally buy your military gear from Russia.
That is a way to kind of get under the skin of America if you are going to buy your armaments from Russia.”
If this was bad, then listen to what General Michael Kurilla, head of the US Central Command, had to say at last week’s hearing of the US House Armed Services Committee.
The general chose to describe Pakistan as a “phenomenal partner” in the fight against terrorism. The irony—to call a certified rogue state as a counter-terror partner—of it was not lost on India. Especially, given that India had just dealt a severe hiding to the country for sponsoring the cross border terror attack in Pahalgam.
These kind of unprovoked rants and sharp observations from the US administration prompted Walter Russel Mead, a foreign policy scholar, to warn the US administration that without a course correction they may be risking the partnership with India.
Writing in the Wall Street Journal last week, Mead said:
“A close second is dignity. India wants to be treated as a great power, and public opinion is keenly sensitive to any slights, real or perceived.
The treatment of India vis-à-vis Pakistan is a hot button. Despite its nuclear weapons, Pakistan is a second or even third-tier power marked by serial and escalating economic and political failures.
India is on a different trajectory, and Indian public opinion wants this success to be recognised.”
And then went on to conclude (the bold text is my doing):
“Team Trump can do better. Alienating the most important world power that viewed his return to office favourably isn’t in Mr. Trump’s best interest. Needlessly needling an important international partner won’t make America great again.”
Business as Usual?
All this noise notwithstanding, the two countries have also been working towards inking the desired milestones listed out at the Trump-Modi summit meeting in the White House.
Typically, the contentious headlines have drowned out the fact that both sides have been working to ink a bilateral trade agreement ahead of 9 July—after which high tariffs on Indian exports kick-in.
In fact, earlier this month, amid all this cacophony, India and US held a comprehensive two-day dialogue in the White House. India was represented by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and the US side was led by Deputy National Security Advisor Pavan Kapoor. The two sides reviewed all aspects of their bilateral relationship.
Writing in the Economic Times, Seema Sirohi, Washington DC-based fellow journalist and a very insightful commentator on India-US relations, argued that the idea of “stealth diplomacy” had been restored in Trump 2.0.
“Relations must be managed because convergences are greater than divergences. ‘Stealth diplomacy’ in Trump 1.0 is functional again, and officials on both sides are doing what they must to keep the relationship moving.
It is not lost on US officials that many in India feel a sense of anger and betrayal, resulting in some erosion of trust.”
Way Forward
In difficult times, smart countries emphasise points of convergence over that of divergence to grow their relationship. The leadership of the United States is a given—at least for the next four years; and there is no guarantee that the next occupant of the White House will be any different.
In other words, India too has to adapt its playbook. It has to demonstrate resilience in dealing with these bumps. After all there are no permanent friends or enemies in foreign relations—especially in such a fluid political era. One’s friend can be another’s enemy and so on.
This was well argued by Indrani Bagchi, former foreign policy editor for the Times of India and now the CEO of Ananta Centre, in a must read oped piece she wrote for the Economic Times. (An aside: Indrani is also the guest on my upcoming weekly show for StratNews Global.)
Sharing a sneak peek (the bold text is my doing):
“India needs a new playbook for the US—there is a ‘Naya America’. The US is not the enemy, but needs careful handling.
Earlier, India did business with official America and leveraged its diaspora for, well, brownie points. We did yoga days, celebrated Indian Americans at the helm of corporate America, and strategised with the US to counter an expansionist China via ‘soft-serve’ arrangements like Quad.
India now has to deal with several Americas:
Official America, where India remains the ‘most consequential partner of the 21st century;
Tech-Wall Street America, where the India play is much thinner;
and Mar-a-Lago America a.k.a. Trump’s family and friends, where the ‘art of the deal’ holds sway.”
Food for thought?
Recommended Viewing
Sharing the latest episode of Capital Calculus. (Please note that Capital Calculus has moved to a new home (stratnewsglobal.tech) within StratNews Global. This relocation will take a bit of getting used to—bear with me.)
Recently, IIT-Madras hosted the launch of the first version of KompactAI, a platform it co-produced with Ziroh Labs. The platform seeks to bridge the AI divide by enabling the creation of affordable applications. This is because the applications created by using the KompactAI platform can run AI without using advanced chips and consuming huge quantities of power.
Significantly, this innovation which democratises AI and showcased at IIT-Madras is not a one-off. Instead, it is part of a growing trend: One in which IITs are emerging as innovation hubs. This begs the question: Is India building its own version of the academic-industrial complex—the ecosystem that fostered the Silicon Valley in the US?
To answer all this and more, I spoke to Prof. V. Kamakoti, Director of IIT Madras. In this unmissable conversation Prof Kamakoti highlighted that India was steadily improving its technology prowess and that the standout theme was to use technology to do public good at scale. Consequently, solving for Bharat was also solving for the world.
Do watch. Sharing the link below.
Till we meet again next week, stay safe.
Thank You!
Finally, a big shoutout to everyone for their informed response, kind appreciation and amplification of last week’s column. Once again, grateful for the conversation initiated by all readers. Gratitude to all those who responded on Twitter (X) and Linkedin.
Unfortunately, Twitter has disabled amplification of Substack links—perils of social media monopolies operating in a walled garden framework. I will be grateful therefore if you could spread the word. Nothing to beat the word of mouth.
Reader participation and amplification is key to growing this newsletter community. And, many thanks to readers who hit the like button😊.
A topical subject as usual Anil. If one analyses the Indo US relations historically, then the following highlights emerge to my mind - US sided with Pakistan on the Kashmir issue but supported India during the Chinese aggression of 1962. All through the cold War and Russian occupation of Afghanistan, they armed Pakistan both during the 1965 and 1971 war. It is only after 9/11 that terrorism as an international threat was recognized and India was being heard seriously in international platforms. On the contrary Russia has always been a dependable ally. India choosing the Russian missile defense system over the more expensive American system was a prudent decisions, although India had been threatened by sanctions, even at that time. India purchasing Russian oil and even exporting it has been an obstacle in the relations with both US and European countries. The final act of enraging Trump, was when PM Modi, on his return from the US, placed an order with Rafael and spurned the offer of fighter jets from the US. Further, the oil purchase from Russia, continued. The US has been an unreliable supplier of defense equipment. The engines, for 175 Tejas fighter jets to be manufactured by HAL, are pending delivery since the last 2 years, placed on GE US. Technically Russian collaboration for projects like Brahmos missiles, have greatly benefitted India in it's defense capabilities. Trump's behavior is more transactional than collaborative like with an ally. It is clear that India is the sacrificial pawn that US would like to use against China. Russia is trying to pave the way for an Indo China understanding. It is US that has to climb down to shake hands with India. Thank you Anil for sharing a wonderful write up.