INDIA @75: OLD PROBLEMS, NEW HOPE
What India does in the next 75 years will be far more important than what it failed to do since Independence. But this needs a new grammar of governance. EPISODE #36
Dear Reader,
A very Happy Monday to you.
On Sunday India celebrated its 75th Independence Day. It was a historic moment and indeed a cause for celebration. Yet, an objective report card will list more misses than hits. This week I explore this challenge in the backdrop of the Independence Day speech by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
A big shoutout to Vivek, Gautam, Premasundaran, Vandana, Abhijit, Rajit, Yugainder, Rahul and Aashish for your informed responses, appreciation and amplification. Gratitude also to all those who responded on Twitter and LinkedIn. It is key to growing this newsletter community. And, many thanks to readers who hit the like button 😊.
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SEIZE THE MOMENT
India logged a major milestone on Sunday: the country celebrated its 75th birthday. A remarkable achievement for a country which inherited an economic and social fabric that was tattered after 200 years of colonial rule. Doubtful if any external observer gave the fledgling democracy more than a decade. Yet, India surprised everyone. It managed to see off the worst economic shocks and the frequent military face offs posed by its two immediate neighbours: Pakistan and China.
However while India survived as a nation, thrive it did not. This sums up the challenge for the country for the next 75 years.
The Legacy Problem
An agenda for the future is important because this is the period when the majority of India’s current population will grow older. At the moment two out of three Indians are less than 35 years of age. But over the next few decades they will first hit middle-age and then old-age—as longevity improves. To put it simply most of India will grow old together. (This is unlike my generation: when we were young most people around us were old; and as we age the majority around us are young.) And unless and until the current economic circumstance (where per capita income hovers around $2,000) sees a fundamental reset the Republic is staring at a bleak future.
Tragically India’s future, like it was in 1947, is still wedded to its ability to breakout of the underdevelopment challenge.
Yes, longevity has improved but the quality of life, except for the 1%, has worsened. To cite two:
Literacy levels have improved but hover well below global standards (A Mexican batchmate in an international programme informed me in 2000 that her country was 100% literate while India as reported by the then latest 1991 Census was at 54%!); school enrolment is up but the quality of education is way below par, causing what experts dub as the “unemployability challenge”.
The health atlas based on a joint study between the Indian Council of Medical Research, Public Health Foundation of India and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation revealed that 60% Indians succumb to non-communicable diseases (like a heart attack). At the same time child and maternal malnutrition, the bane of underdevelopment, continue to cause premature deaths of an estimated six million children in the country; and tuberculosis, a disease in which India reports the highest incidence, continues to pose a threat to the nation’s health fabric.
Fresh Hope
In this backdrop India faces two propositions when it looks at the next 75 years: A cup half-empty or a cup half-full. It can either dwell on how the country’s leadership miserably failed the masses for the first seven decades or build on the minimal successes to etch a new future for India—the one our founding fathers had envisaged and enshrined in the Constitution.
On Sunday Prime Minister Narendra Modi signalled that India was opting for the latter and laid out an extensive 25-year blueprint for change. Typical of him to give it a moniker: Amrut Kaal (or most auspicious time).
Topping the agenda is the universalisation of basic public services and utilities to empower everyone. Till recently electricity supply had not even reached every village; leave alone every individual household. Similarly, by far also the biggest public policy failure of modern India, access to water by tap was denied to bulk of the people. At the time of the launch of the ‘Har Ghar Jal’ mission in 2019 access to tap water was available to only 3.12 crore rural households in the country—there are an estimated 19.19 crore rural households.
It is shameful that only one city in India, Puri in Odisha, provides 24x7 drinking water by tap to all the households. And even this milestone was logged only a fortnight ago. In short, access to basic services has been a luxury. Not only does this deny people a basic standard of living it also hurts the productivity of the economy.
Needless to say provision of such a basic utility will go a long way in alleviating diarrhoea (the biggest killer of children aged less than five years) and water borne diseases. It will also liberate women from the burden of carrying the water, sometimes for miles (medical experts aver that it causes deformities in the spine, knees and hips of these women). Just like how home makers gained after the provision of cooking gas under the Ujwalla scheme.
The good news is that providing access to water is now on mission mode and the proportion of rural households with access has gone up from 16.86% to 41.48% in the last two years.
Inspired by the initial success the plan now is to scale universalisation to other utilities. In fact, PM Modi alluded to this in his speech from the ramparts of Red Fort.
According to the PM the universal roll out of tap water, cooking gas, banking and so on will be achieved in the next few years. This aligns well with the ideological pivot effected by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the last seven years: leaning away from entitlement to empowerment. This is a strategy which believes that if you give a person a fish and you feed him or her for a day. Teach a person to fish and you feed them for a lifetime.
Alongside this government has also begun to rewrite the social rules by its slogan: vocal for local. One fallout has been the emphasis on regional language and bringing them on par with English and Hindi. This does level the playing field to a substantial degree and has fed the rise of subaltern India.
“I see this as a tool in India’s fight against poverty,” the PM said.
The political economy of this new governance lexicon is that cynical politicians who have dangled access to basic utilities like electricity and water as a carrot using catchy slogans like ‘Roti, Kapada aur Makaan’ to win power will now have to work harder for their vote. To be sure provision of such material benefits is only a necessary and not sufficient condition to win electoral power. But the economic gains from such empowerment are incredible.
In the final analysis it is clear that India’s 75th birthday is as much a moment of celebration as it is for introspection. If indeed India does pull off the blueprint set out by the Prime Minister, then our Gen-Z, Gen-X and Millennials can look to a brighter future than what my generation experienced.
Jai Hind!
Recommended Reading/Viewing
I came across this very interesting book by Erica Dhawan on the evolving grammar of reading body language in a digital era. In her book, Digital Body Language, Dhawan makes a fascinating observation on how to read people in an online world:
“Online, reading carefully is the new listening. Writing clearly is the new empathy. And a phone or video call is worth a thousand emails.”
It caught my attention. The book is available on Amazon India.
As I was winding up my column for this week I saw a news flash that the Kabul had fallen. The Taliban, who had been kicked out 20 years ago, are back in power. It is such a tragic turn of events. The United States, Pakistan, China, Russia and Iran should be held accountable for the horror being subjected upon the people of Afghanistan. All these countries have in varying degrees contributed to this Millennium’s worst tragedy.
It is a nation which has suffered terribly since the late 1970s with super powers engaging in a power struggle. The tragedy of this constant churning happening in Afghanistan is that no lessons have been learnt. Pakistan, whose calling card is terror, provided sanctuary to the Taliban when the Americans were on the ascendancy. The Americans, who in the aftermath of 2001 terror attacks on the US had invaded the country and installed a government promising change, withdrew abruptly. This left the barn door open for the Taliban forces to return and take over the country once again. It is amazing that all this has played out right before us and no tough questions have been asked of any of these countries—especially the United States, China and Pakistan. One bristles with anger at the sounds of silence and the manner in which a country has been reduced to a plaything for super powers.
Like everyone I also worry for all those Afghan people who despite the threats to their life dared to dream. Especially their popular cricket team, which in such a short period acquired a strong regional presence. I also worry for the all-girls ensemble of Afghanistan—was lucky to catch a live performance by this talented lot in Delhi a few years ago. It is heart breaking to think about the bleak future of the Afghan people. (Just two years of Emergency taught India the value of democracy. The tragedy of Afghanistan made me realise how lucky we are to preserve our freedom and celebrate its 75th anniversary.)
Sharing a clip from the ensemble which ironically is an ode to the girl child:
On that poignant note, till we meet again next week. Stay safe.
Given the challenges India faced post independence, of integration of a country with different languages, culture, education and economic disparity between the haves and have nots, I personally feel that we have done reasonably well, while keeping intact our democratic values. Our space research and programme is in the top five and the steady stream of technocrats being produced in India are not only keeping us abreast of the rest of the world but are also also in demand in most English speaking nations. Our shortcomings are exposed only when we are compared with China, which has reached super power status, only due to the authoritarian implementation of discipline and conduct, forcefully thrust upon by a ruthless communist regime. In the happiness quotient therefore, Indians could possibly come out better than the Chinese. As an investment destination also, India will be more attractive in comparison to China, due to a democratic system of governance in place.
Dear Anil,
excellant as always.Yesterday when we were celebrating our Independence Day,one of our neighbors Afganistan lost its freedom to Taliban and the whole world was a mute spectator. Somehow this made me feel extremely grateful that I am born as an Indian. I feel blessed to be a part of a great democratic nation where we have freedom to express ourselves and feel safe . If we see most of our neighbors whether Pakistan, Mynamar, Bangladesh, Nepal, Afganistan, even mighty China etc. they have faced constitutional crisis, or military rule,or curtailed freedom of citizens, but we as a nation have always held our democratic values ( except for short period of Emergency ). We must value our freedom and stop constant criticism.
Looking back at our journey from 1947 to present , we feel proud of our achievements, but wisdom lies in also looking at how other nations have performed. Comparison of India should be with China , given their population size and that both countries started their journey in late 1940s. By 2020 Chinas GDP was nearly 14.8 trillion US dollars and India lags way behind with 2.7 trillion US dollars. Indias relatively sluggish economic performance raises doubts about its flawed democratic structure that makes economic reforms and policy implementation more challenging , unlike China. Chinas reforms started with agriculture, INDIA till recently has been avoiding
reforming its agriculture. Just sharing a few statistical facts about our country :from 1950 to 2020 our population has increased by 910% , GDP Per capita increased by 2224% and food grain production increased by 500%.
India to move forward requires huge investments in quality education , skills , health, infrastructure, R&D in agriculture both by govt and private sector.