DISASTERS AHOY
A fresh warning from the United Nations says climate change is reaching the point of no return, rewriting the global risk matrix. EPISODE #123
Dear Reader,
A very Happy Monday to you.
Last week the Associated Press wrote about a recent report issued by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). It warned that more catastrophes were on the anvil.
“The number of extreme heat waves in 2030 will be three times what it was in 2001 and there will be 30% more droughts.”
If you recall I did write about a similar warning issued in the sixth and final report from another arm of the United Nations, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A few weeks later, the Fiscal Monitor issued by the International Monetary Fund carried the same missive.
In fact, climate change is part of the new risk lexicon defined by actor-less threats—as opposed to say by cross-border terrorism.
We can ignore these repeated warnings on climate only at our own peril. So this week I explore the latest report from the UNDRR. It will also serve as inputs for the high-level meet of the United Nations General Assembly convened next month to “adopt a concise and action-oriented political declaration to renew commitments.”
Last week I undertook a trip to South India and visited some tea plantations in the Nilgiris. The cover picture is from there. It is also a stark reminder of what can be lost if the world does not mend its ways.
A big shoutout to Balesh, Joy, Yugainder, Sangeeta, Vandana, Ranjini, Gautam and Premasundaran, for your informed responses, kind appreciation and amplification of last week’s column. Once again, grateful for the conversation initiated by all you readers. Gratitude also to all those who responded on Twitter and Linkedin. Reader participation and amplification is key to growing this newsletter community. And, many thanks to readers who hit the like button😊.
POINT OF NO RETURN
Last week the Associated Press quoted a new report from the United Nations warning that the world which is yet to recover from the fallout of the once in a century pandemic should be bracing for worse—this time induced by climate change.
The report, a mid-term review, undertaken by the United Nations Office for Disaster Reduction (UNDRR), is a blunt warning that the world can no longer afford a business-as-usual approach to the threat of climate change.
It argued that circumstances are inclement and are poised at the point of no return; failure to undertake an immediate rollout of a prevention strategy that integrates risk reduction will invite a catastrophe upon the world.
The deterioration is already manifesting in a spike in disasters.
“Increasing numbers of people are being affected by larger, ever more complex and more expensive disasters because decision makers are failing to put people first and prevent risks from becoming disasters. This is the conclusion of a multi-country review initiated by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR).”
And then added:
“Among the troubling reversals is that there has been an 80% increase in the number of people affected by disasters since 2015.
Moreover, the costs of disasters remain high, with an average above US$ 330 billion per year between 2015 and 2021, which is estimated to be significantly undervalued. And at the same time, there has been no commensurate increase in funding for disaster risk reduction.”
It also held out a grim forecast:
“The number of extreme heat waves in 2030 will be three times what it was in 2001 and there will be 30% more droughts.”
In India we are already witnessing instances of extreme weather—the floods in Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Kerala are still fresh in our minds.
It will be moot to keep in mind that on an average India witnessed about four disasters per year for 100 years ended 2000. However, in the two decades since the turn of the Millennium, this average has spiked to 17 per year!
Viewed another way, it is clear that while climate change is a consequence of actions induced by humans, the threat vector is actor-less. Unlike say in the case of cross-border terrorism.
Actor-Less Threats
Actually, climate change is not an isolated example of an actor-less threat.
The once in a century covid-19 pandemic with dodgy origins in Wuhan, China, is the biggest example of an actor-less threat and the damage that it can cause. Similarly, the current wave of inflation, not witnessed since the last three decades, is yet another actor-less threat; and so are the global food insecurities caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
I wrote about this in my monthly column in the Economic Times. Sharing a screen grab of the article and the link:
And prior to this I interviewed Erin Sikorsky, Director, Centre for Climate and Security for my weekly programme on StratNews Global.
Erin is among the scholars who have consistently argued that climate change poses a national security risk. Did share this earlier, so it is a replug.
In case you haven’t, I would recommend that you do read the piece in Economic Times and watch the interview.
It would sum up the argument on the dangers posed by actor-less threats and how they are redefining the global threat lexicon.
Underwriting Risks
As the UNDRR report clearly argues, an unmindful world is making a bad situation worse: wherein risk creation is outstripping risk reduction.
Tragically, this is happening despite the world, under the aegis of the United Nations, evolving a blueprint to progressively reduce risk between 2015-2030.
The so-called Sendai Framework for Disaster Reduction lays down a critical pivot the world needs to undertake to deal with disasters: moving from managing disasters to preempting them by reducing underlying risks.
“The Sendai Framework was envisioned with the understanding that decisions that create or prevent, amplify or reduce risk before the risk becomes disaster, are of critical importance if we are to reduce shocks that can be characterised by local-to-planetary-to-local cascading impacts and contagion.”
The latest UNDRR report comes at exactly the midpoint of this transition period. The prognosis is grim.
The world has failed to heed its own advice—also a sorry commentary on how multilateral institutions are being undermined, either through sabotage or institutional capture. It is like the way an ailing patient fails to heed their doctor’s advice: the outcome has to be a disaster.
This was most evident in the breakout of the covid-19 pandemic. As the UNDRR report argues it was a classic failure to “manage the drivers of risk creation and propagation in and across sectors, disciplines, geographies, scales and through time”. As a result, a local outbreak (in Wuhan, China) morphed into a global contagion that continues to roil the world’s socio-economic fabric.
Keep in mind that the world today is at its most vulnerable having to deal with the triple environmental crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution—inflation, financial meltdown, food scarcities only make this worse. And all of them, though induced by human actions/inactions, are actor-less threats.
Clearly, the reset to global risk governance and risk management is long overdue. The irony is that a perfect blueprint exists. It is for a disunited world to walk the talk.
Recommended Viewing
Sharing the latest post of Capital Calculus on StratNews Global.
This time it was a conversation with Praveena Rai, Chief Operating Officer at National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI). Most of us know about NPCI thanks to its flagship—UPI or Unified Payments Interface. Actually it so much more.
Every time we cross a toll seamlessly it is thanks to NPCI’s FastTag. So is the case when the government undertakes Direct Benefits Transfer (DBT)—so far Rs28 lakh crore has been transferred and about Rs3 lakh crore saved in leakages. I can simply go on.
Now NPCI is poised for its next phase of growth. An institution that is constantly innovating is now spreading its wings globally, even as it expands its domestic offerings.
Please do watch and share your thoughts. Sharing the link below:
Till we meet again next week, stay safe.
Very interesting and informative article!!
Well written Anil !
Risk creation is outstripping Risk reduction !
I am not as yet clear whether a global strategy is in place to reach the pivotal balance which you talk about ? Is it still on the table or being implemented half heartedly ????