CLIMATE WARNING
A new United Nations report warns that the world is facing catastrophe as it is at the tipping point of global warming. EPISODE #118
Dear Reader,
A very Happy Monday to you.
Last week the The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a body of the United Nations tasked with assessing the science related to climate change, submitted the so-called “synthesis” report—essentially a summation of the previous reports which unpacks the imminent climate change challenge and then sets out the desired blueprint to head off the threat.
The big headline from the report is the warning: Now or Never!
It confirms our worst fears that global warming is for real. And, if the world does not act now (yesterday actually) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and contain human-caused climate change, then kiss goodbye to a sustainable future for the world. So this week I explore this dire warning from the IPCC and the grave implications.
The cover picture is taken by Markus Spiske and sourced from Unsplash. It very succinctly sums up the ‘Now or Never’ climate challenge facing the world. Thank you Markus.
A big shoutout to Ranjini, Laxmi, Aashish, Monica, Premasundaran, Nimesh, Vipul, Gautam, Atul and Vandana for your informed responses, kind appreciation and amplification of last week’s column. Once again, grateful for the conversation initiated by all you readers. Gratitude also to all those who responded on Twitter and Linkedin. Reader participation and amplification is key to growing this newsletter community. And, many thanks to readers who hit the like button😊.
THE TIPPING POINT
Last week the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the apex global body monitoring climate set up under the aegis of the United Nations, submitted its sixth assessment report.
Considered the most comprehensive assessment of climate change, the findings are a wake-up call to the world, especially for the developed countries—the largest polluters in per capita terms.
It argues that the current trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions is unsustainable and the world is on the brink of breaching the cap of 1.5 degrees C agreed to by all countries.
In fact, several people, including Bill Gates, maintain that this cap will be breached and the world should prepare for the consequences.
Indeed, if this dire forecast does come true, then the world will have crossed the tipping point—after this the pace of climate change will go into a downward spiral with devastating consequences.
And one should keep in mind that the IPCC assessment is based on the meticulous research efforts of a collective of domain experts on climate change. Indeed, it is the largest repository of global knowledge on climate. In short the last word.
The research team included:
234 scientists on the physical science;
270 scientists on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability;
278 scientists on climate change mitigation
Reality Check
The outlook projected by the IPCC is frightening, especially given that the world is already witnessing the effects of global warming. So any deterioration will only advance the catastrophe.
Elaborating its warning, the IPCC report said:
“Every increment of warming results in rapidly escalating hazards. More intense heatwaves, heavier rainfall and other weather extremes further increase risks for human health and ecosystems.
In every region, people are dying from extreme heat. Climate-driven food and water insecurity is expected to increase with increased warming. When the risks combine with other adverse events, such as pandemics or conflicts, they become even more difficult to manage.”
Sharing a graphic sourced from the World Resources Institute (WRI), which sums up the climate challenge that is already upon the world.
The inclement climate change situation warrants action on a war footing. Accordingly, the IPCC report estimates that countries will have to halve their emissions in the next seven years if the world is to contain the rise of temperatures under 1.5 degree C.
India too is not aloof from these changes. It is particularly vulnerable as it is home to the world’s largest population—most of whom are yet to fully experience the benefits of development.
Yet, the impact of climate change is already snapping at its heels. The most recent example was the devastating floods that hit Kerala. Worse is in store. Sharing a statistic that captures this threat:
In the last century India experienced about four natural disasters every year. This average spiked to a staggering 17 per year in the last two decades!.
Nurturing Hope
The obvious question is whether all is lost? Fair thought. I would say the odds are heavily stacked against the world.
Sticking to the cap of 1.5 degree C will require collective action. In a world so deeply polarised, especially one in which almost every big nation is embroiled in the Russia-Ukraine war, this is a tall and difficult ask.
But then don’t forget the covid-19 pandemic. Though, it had dodgy origins in Wuhan, China and the World Health Organisation did not cover itself in glory following the outbreak, the world did eventually offer a collective response.
Yes, there are many distasteful lessons from that experience. The most shocking one was the western nations moving to preempt the initial quota of vaccines, leaving the poorer countries, already strapped for lack of adequate health infrastructure, to fend for themselves.
But eventually, the world did see off the worst of the covid-19 threat. Which is what lends hope about a similar response to mitigate and slow down climate change.
The big catch though is that the ill-effects of climate change are not easily tangible, unlike say economic growth or inflation. This makes it difficult for the authorities to make a case to the general populace.
That is why the latest IPCC report is so significant. It reflects the most comprehensive research, backed by science, which argues that the world has run out of time: It is now or never.
Accordingly it sets out a blueprint for action, which is not rocket science. It requires countries to adopt climate resilient development strategies. To fund this costly pivot it makes out a strong case for climate finance—and here all eyes are on the rich nations.
Not only have the rich nations been the biggest polluters (see the graphic below) they have also been very reluctant to fund climate finance.
What the latest IPCC report tells us is that the time for waffling is over. Climate change is now a key risk in global socio-economic math. It is part of the matrix of risks facing not just companies and countries, but the entire world.
Future generations will reap the actions, good or bad, the world takes in the next seven years.
So act now.
Recommended Viewing
Sharing the latest post of Capital Calculus on StratNews Global.
This time I dwell on the big surge in services exports—a subject I had tackled in a recent newsletter.
Data for February, showing a staggering growth of 36.9%, only confirmed that export in services will top $300 billion this fiscal (2022-23). Significantly, it is rapidly closing the gap with merchandise exports—in fact, service exports are averaging about 42-43% of merchandise exports.
Rupa Chanda, Director, Trade, Investment and Innovation Division, UNESCAP, walked me through this trend with her terrific insights. The good news is that she confirms India’s potential. The bad news, as she argues, is that this is based on the country overcoming a limitation: A legacy skill deficit.
Do watch. Sharing the link below:
Till we meet again next week, stay safe.
Dear Anil
Usually your articles make one feel good and invariably proud of India's achievements in various fields. This time, however, it's unnerving to read about the morbid state of affairs. The next seven years will be the deciding factor. Very scary thought because time is really ticking away. Like you rightly pointed out, the ill-effects of climate change are not easily tangible. To quote a very small example. In Kerala the festival of Vishu is always celebrated in April- usually the 14th. There is a special yellow flower which is an integral part of the celebration. It's known locally as Kanikonna. Earlier it used to be in full bloom in the month of April. However of late it has started blooming in January itself. One can easily infer that the kind of high temperatures which used to be experienced in April is prevalent in January itself! Not that we are doing anything about it. The common man first blames the government and then destiny for all kinds of natural disasters. Till when will we keep passing the blame instead of taking some responsibility for ruining our planet. Then alone will we think of making amends.
Hi Anil !
Well summarised the grim global climatic situation ! The critical sentence is :
The big catch though is that the ill-effects of climate change are not easily tangible, unlike say economic growth or inflation.
Watching this for last 25 years- No noticeable effort is in place . Solutions have got lost in geo- political negotiations and differences among economic blocs !
Disaster is awaiting to happen!