ADIOS 2022

EPISODE #105

Dear Reader,

A very Happy (last) Monday of 2022 to you.

It is that one week in the year when we are ensconced with our family and dear ones instead of being distracted by our daily grind. Indeed it is also a moment we reflect on the year that is passing by (rather quickly).

Keeping with this tradition, this week I will skip the usual format of reviewing policy developments from the previous week and instead try and reflect on another roller coaster year—one when we could rarely anticipate what to expect at the next bend.

The cover picture this week is taken by Fabien Bazanegue and sourced from Unsplash. It is from what I believe is the greatest city on earth: New York.

For those who may not know, this is the iconic Brooklyn Bridge. Check out this link for details about the bridge.

A walk on the wooden pedestrian path laid on top of the motorway below is unmissable, especially at night. If there is only one thing you can do during a visit to NYC, then this is it. Till al Qaeda terrorists took it down on 9/11, the night view of the twin towers of the World Trade Center was breathtaking. Grateful to my friend from Israel, Irit, who introduced me to this visual treasure in 1997.

This picture somehow captures the present moment: yes there are clouds over the city, but you can also see the silver lining (of hope)!

A big shoutout to Karan, Deepak, Atul, Gautam, Ranjini, Balesh, Anand, Saurabh, Niranjan, Premasundaran and Vandana for your informed responses, kind appreciation, critique and amplification of last week’s column—it touched a chord with so many readers. The best part was that all the responses together actually set out a playbook to deal with the current crisis. Guess it is now for DIAL to implement these ideas.

Gratitude also to all those who responded on Twitter and Linkedin. Reader participation and amplification is key to growing this newsletter community. And, many thanks to readers who hit the like button😊.

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REFLECTIONS

First off, salute and fond remembrance to those we bid adieu for the last time. The covid-19 pandemic was a grim reminder of many things, including the frailty of human life. Exactly why they say ‘seize the moment’.

Second, I kicked off this year’s first newsletter on a note of caution: Fear the Known Unknown. Tragically it was just an iteration of the theme I touched upon in the beginning of 2021.

Reproducing the graphic I had shared to explain this seemingly complex phrase.

The four quadrants are self explanatory. The least risk is to the world is in quadrant-two and correspondingly the worst is in quadrant-four.

Unfortunately, the situation is very much the same as we approach 2023. In fact, if anything, given the speed at which events of global scale (like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, acceleration in climate change fallout) that threaten to overwhelm us, I fear we are at risk of slipping into quadrant-four.

The good news though is that the world has survived this testing round. But the bad news is that the situation will only worsen before it begins to improve over the next two years. So brace for worse.

Back home in India though there is cause for cheer.

Proving doomscrollers wrong, the country survived the test of the covid-19 pandemic—despite a sell-past-the-date health infrastructure—and its devastating impact on lives and livelihood, and continued aggression on its Eastern borders from a bellicose China. Somehow the challenges brought out the best in India.

You may recall I wrote about India’s rebound and how it is drawing global attention a fortnight ago. Sharing the link below in case you wish to re-read it.

INDIA SHINING

However India can’t remain insulated forever if the global conditions go from bad to worse, as some forecast. Fingers crossed.

Third, carrying on from above, the world is experiencing what is called a ‘Polycrisis’ moment—the simultaneous occurrence of several catastrophic events. Never before has the world been subjected to three back-to-back cataclysmic moments of such proportion.

To begin with there was the covid-19 pandemic with dodgy origins in Wuhan, China; then the Ukraine-Russia war unveiled, which exacerbated global supply chains and unleashed a global inflationary spiral; finally, rapid rate tightening by US Fed to fend of domestic inflation has only exported it other countries by forcing a depreciation of all major international currencies (making imports costlier), including the Indian rupee.

The compounding effect of these catastrophic events have created unprecedented economic stress across the world. And now the fresh breakout of the Omicron version of covid-19 is threatening a fresh round of disruption.

As the second largest economy ($18 trillion) in the world, any setback to China has implications for the rest of the world. This is even if we assume (hoping for the best) that the virus does not mutate and assume a vicious avatar and unleash fresh damage.

On top of it, the threat of climate change—going by the huge spike in extreme weather events, both within India and the rest of the world—is for real. Postponing mitigation is no longer an option. But then every challenge is also an opportunity, especially for climate-tech startups (check out the latest post of Capital Calculus on StratNews Global shared below).

Finally, for inspiration, as always, I turn to the candid annual letter from Bill Gates looking ahead at 2023.

This year the Gates theme was: ‘Times are hard. But I still believe we can make the world better for the next generation.’

The philanthropist begins by taking note of the grim reality in the post-covid world.

“Tragically, recent events are slowing and even reversing this progress (of declining deaths of children less than five years of age). The COVID-19 pandemic caused millions of deaths and severely hampered efforts to immunize children.

Russia’s war on Ukraine is inflicting terrible suffering in Eastern Europe and driving up food and energy prices around the world.

Rich countries are cutting foreign aid, partly because they need to spend more on the military, electricity subsidies, and support for refugees displaced by the war.

Inflation is rising and economic growth is slowing.

Climate change is leading to more frequent extreme weather. And in the United States, our politics are more polarized than ever.

In my lifetime, the only other period that felt this turbulent was the 1960s.”

And then sets out his blueprint for hope and change.

“The people who were already worst off are bearing most of the pain of these setbacks, and the worst thing we could do is retreat from supporting them.

I’m stubborn in my belief that with the right innovations, we can continue to reduce inequity in spite of the headwinds.

Through the foundation and my personal work, I am trying to make sure that, even with everything else going on, the world continues to do more to help the poorest. Getting more support for this is a key goal.”

Gates then warns the world may not have learnt all the right lessons from the covid-19 pandemic, leaving it vulnerable to another in future.

“It's fantastic that we’re out of the acute phase of the pandemic.

But I’m concerned that we’ll forget how horrible it was, and that in our complacency we won’t push ahead with the things needed to prevent another pandemic—one that could be even worse.

If I were to grade the world on its pandemic-prevention efforts so far, I’d give it an I for Incomplete.”

If you haven’t already, hope these teasers tempt you into reading the entire letter. Sharing the link again.

With that I am signing off for the last time in 2022. Thank you for being my reader and see you in 2023.

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Recommended Viewing

Sharing the latest post of Capital Calculus on StratNews Global.

The topic of conversation this week was the greening of India and the rise of climate tech. The trigger was the passage of the amended law by Parliament last week, which puts in place new mandatory norms for energy conservation.

The guest this week was Sandiip Bhammer, co-founder Green Frontier Capital, a venture capital firm with exposures to investments in India.

I began the conversation from the passage of the new Energy Conservation law and then went on to dwell on a range of issues relating to the birth and growth of climate-tech in India. One big takeaway, according to Sandiip, was that India may emerge as the innovation hub for the Global South.

Sharing the link below. Do watch and share your thoughts.

Till we meet again in 2023, stay safe.