9/11 ATTACKS @20: A TRAGEDY RETOLD
In a tragic turn of events the wheel has turned a full circle in the battle against terror, exposing a deeply divided world to grave risks. EPISODE #40
Dear Reader,
A very Happy Monday to you.
Last weekend was the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks on the United States. At 8.46 am on that fateful day a commercial air plane hijacked by al Qaeda terrorists flew into the World Trade Center. It was an epoch moment the reverberations from which are still being felt around the world.
I was actually less than a fortnight away from landing in New York to start an assignment for India Today as their US correspondent. The tragedy dislocated air travel and delayed my departure to the first week of October 2001. I recall my first visit to the ruins of the iconic World Trade Centre in downtown Manhattan. Ground Zero looked like a ghost town and smoke continued to smoulder from the debris. I have always believed New York to be the greatest city on earth. And to see it brought to its knees, bewildered and in shock was overwhelming.
Fast forward two decades and we see the world has changed fundamentally. The once mighty American power looks diminished. Not so much because they have declined, but for the fact that China moved up the ranks at an incredible pace. In fact, China, a trifle early I believe, has staked claim as the new pole in geopolitics. An inevitable pushback from the Americans has not been long in coming. In fact, the withdrawal from Afghanistan mirrors a facet of this ongoing confrontation. Accordingly this week I put the spotlight on the 20th anniversary of 9/11: the lesson not learnt.
The cover picture this week is a random one I took after disembarking from my first train journey in over two decades to Uttarakhand. The once familiar sight of a red mailbox simply stood out, resulting in this spontaneous image. Enjoy
A big shoutout to Ajit, Kishan, Vivek, Nishadh, Virendra, Gautam, Vandana, Premasundaran, Aashish and Rahul for your informed responses, appreciation and amplification. Gratitude also to all those who responded on Twitter and LinkedIn.
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THE WAR ON TERROR
Last weekend the United States and the world observed the 20th anniversary of the audacious attack on the World Trade Centre in New York by a commercial airplane hijacked by al Qaeda terrorists guided from their headquarters located in Afghanistan.
At that moment, the world, excluding the countries sponsoring terror, stood as one with the United States of America. For the record, Pakistan joined the American corner with great reluctance. It needed a none too disguised threat (“You are either with us or against us.”) from President George Bush to fall in line. A wave of retribution followed and the Taliban, which had provided a safe harbour for the al Qaeda, was ejected from Afghanistan.
Worryingly this battle did not end quickly as was initially anticipated. It dragged on especially with the Taliban relocating, regrouping and resuming their fight from neighbouring Pakistan. Inexplicably the Americans overlooked this treachery by one of its key allies and paid the price: Eventually losing the war of attrition—leading to its ignominious exit from Afghanistan a fortnight ago.
As a result the 20th anniversary turned out to be the moment where the hunted (Taliban) was restored to power. In fact, the Taliban had proposed government formation on the 9/11 anniversary.
Worse, this has implicitly endorsed the dangerous strategy of weaponising terrorism. The Taliban and its primary backers, Pakistan and China, are predictably more emboldened. Undoubtedly the wheel in the fight against terror has turned a full circle. The graveyard of empires, Afghanistan, has a new cast of players and instability has returned to the region.
A Tragedy Foretold
Implicitly somewhere in its decision to withdraw, the United States and its western allies are making a very wrong assumption: geography mitigates the risk of terror attacks on their soil. Tragically this is exactly the assumption they made before terrorists took the fight to them on 9/11.
In fact, it was Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who had presciently warned the world in his address to the United Nations General Assembly in 2000, that geography offered no protection. The then prime minister made this remark in the context of the cross-border terror being sponsored by Pakistan against India. Unfortunately the world ignored his remarks, attributing them to regional rivalries in the sub-continent.
A year later, after the terror attacks of 9/11, Vajpayee reiterated his argument at the next UN General Assembly:
“Terrorism did not start on 11 September. It was on that day that it brazenly announced itself on the global stage, flaunting its immunity from distance and power.”
Overnight the United States acknowledged its error of omission and sought to make amends.
But they failed to heed another piece of advice—no doubt crafted by Brajesh Mishra, the PM’s astute National Security Advisor—Vajpayee had delivered in the same speech. Using the platform of the United Nations the former PM unambiguously warned the Americans from falling for Pakistan’s bluff:
“In our South Asian region, nuclear blackmail has emerged over the last few months as a new arrow in the quiver of state-sponsored terrorism. Dark threats were held out that actions by India to stamp out cross-border terrorism could provoke a nuclear war. To succumb to such blatant nuclear terrorism would mean forgetting the bitter lessons of the 11 September tragedy.”
With the benefit of hindsight it can be safely said that this was a fatal error of omission. The Americans fell for this bluff and failed to take the confrontation to its logical conclusion. Exactly why they missed their chance to eliminate Osama bin Laden, the al Qaeda ideologue, early in the confrontation as he found refuge in Pakistan. The Barack Obama presidency only accelerated this drift. And even after Laden was located and killed in Pakistan, the Americans continued to overlook this dangerous reality.
Every American misstep only emboldened the historically misguided leadership of Pakistan. (It is important, particularly in the case of Pakistan where the military is all powerful, to delink the leadership from the people. It is very unlikely that the average person in Pakistan favours such a zero sum strategy.)
Several policy experts have cautioned the Americans. Christine Fair, the political scientist who teaches in Georgetown University, is one such person who has repeatedly called out Pakistan. Even accusing them of trying to destabilise Afghanistan from the 1970s.
I am sharing a recent interview of Fair on BBC (where strangely the BBC sought to muzzle her point of view, only reaffirming the perception that the West, including the media, continues to retain their blinders) in which she lays it out rather bluntly:
“Pakistan likes to be seen as the fire brigade, (while) Pakistan is in fact the arsonist.”
To some Professor Fair may sound harsh. But truth is always bitter. The strategy pursued by Pakistan is rather easy to unpack. It does not possess qualities—like economic potential—to chart out success on the global stage using conventional parameters.
Consequently its only hope of staying relevant is to be a disruptor. And in this its leadership has found a calling in moulding together a dangerous mix of Islam and terrorism.
It transformed a country, which once the world saw as one with great potential, into a terror factory. However thanks to extremely skilled diplomacy Pakistan has eluded serious criticism and got away with an occasional rap on the knuckles. More importantly it has poured money into various lobbies on the Hill to win the hearts and minds of key US politicians on both sides of the aisle.
Simultaneously, like Professor Fair pointed out, Pakistan has used nuclear blackmail to get the West to overlook its sponsorship of cross-border terror. In fact, after the Afghanistan reversal an emboldened Pakistan has dropped all pretences and is publicly owning support and recognition of the victorious Taliban.
Needless to say the West is once again poised to add to its litany of errors of omission, putting the world at even greater risk. As Vajpayee pointed out 20 years ago, the Western nations led by the Americans are lulling themselves into believing that geography is a buffer against terrorism. The subtext of this thinking is obvious: As long as cross-border terror is targeted at India, the West will revert to seeing this as an outcome of a regional rivalry gone wrong.
But what they forget is that Pakistan, by virtue of its strategic choices, is central to the problem. And like Vajpayee so presciently warned cross-border terrorism is something that can neither be ignored nor wished away. Terrorism unaddressed is akin to cancer; it will be fatal. Selective amnesia is no longer an option for the Americans. In fact it poses a grave threat to world stability.
The alternative, like Karl Marx had famously pointed out is frightening: History repeats itself, first as a tragedy (9/11) and then as a farce.
RECOMMENDED VIEWING
Keeping with the theme of the newsletter this week I am sharing a clip from a must watch series on Netflix: Turning Point
Till we meet again next week. Stay safe.
9/11 ATTACKS @20: A TRAGEDY RETOLD
Dear Anil ,
a very well timed and insightful article on terrorism and its adverse impact on the global economy. you have very rightly said" the wheel in the fight against terror has turned a full circle ". The terrorist attacks on September 11, 2011 , were one of the deadliest in the recent history.They were executed under the leadership of Osama bin laden. It is ironical that it was the same person who had been nurtured and funded by CIA and american establishment to raise the army of Mujahideens to fight the soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.
The turn of events in Afghanistan have triggered fresh apprehensions among Indias policymakers and security experts about the Pakistan backed militant groups and violence in Kashmir and increased cross border terrorism.
The frank and candid interview of Dr. Christine Fair clearly brings out the threat posed to the world by Pakistan and its role since 1973 in supporting Taliban . It is sad that in spite of evidence and so many terror related incidents Pakistan is not on the FATF Blacklist.
A departure Anil from the usual link to economic activity but you have touched on an issue with devastating economic ramifications. Now that the world can clearly identity the hand behind the Taliban, sanctions may follow and Pakistan may be put on the FATF blacklist. Pakistan for sometime now is posturing to become a military power that has a say in the affairs of the oil rich middle east. With a crumbling economy and a huge nuclear arsenal, they may start clandestine supply of nuclear weapons to irresponsible groups or countries. This may sound farfetched but like 9/11 history repeats itself and anything is possible. China on the other hand will quietly assert itself, through it's two allies, Pakistan on the West and North Korea on the East. Things really don't look too good for the world; with Afghanistan now free to become both the narcotics and terror hub of the world.